This month we dive into the fierce debate around sanctions, one of diplomacy’s most controversial coercive tools, that has been raging in international humanitarian and diplomatic circles since the 1990s and has been reignited by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the mass sanctions against Putin’s government that have followed. In recent years important research has been conducted on the impacts of sanctions on conflict mediation,with scholars raising questions about a one-size fits all approach and arguing that more work needs to be done to ensure that sanctions are flexible, in sync with mediation efforts and have a clear purpose beyond punishment or regime change. Among researchers there is broad consensus that there must be coordination between sanctions regimes in different countries and other multilateral institutions like the United Nations, if they are to be meaningful and effective. But as experts argue, more work must be done to understand how sanctions can be effectively used as leverage to achieve certain political goals.
Sanctions, whether initiated by states or multilateral organizations such as the United Nations, have different aims and take different forms, whether it be targeting members and financial backers of violent and oppressive regimes, putting pressure on nations and their citizens in order to encourage regime change, or compelling parties to negotiate and reach peace agreements. While they often make news headlines, they have had mixed results, with some scholars saying they don’t work against dictatorships, and they have harmed United States interests and global influence. Former senior United Nations officials, such as the late former Secretary-General Kofi Annan, and Michelle Bachelet, the former Commissioner for Human Rights, have claimed that sanctions could be doing more harm than good and have argued they need to be rethought, so they achieve their aims and mitigate negative impacts on the ordinary citizens they ought to serve who are living in conflicts and under oppressive regimes. “When sanctions target an entire country, or address entire economic sectors, it is the most vulnerable people in that country – those who are least protected – who are likely to be worst harmed,” said Bachelet, who argued that sanctions themselves can violate rather than protect human rights.
In ‘Sanctions Under Scrutiny,’ five experts explore sanctions regimes in five ongoing diplomatic and armed conflicts, including two recent conflicts in Ukraine and Sudan, longstanding wars and insurgencies in Syria and Mali, along with the decades-long diplomatic battle between Iran and the United States. Thank you for reading Diplomacy Now and we welcome your feedback at diplomacynow@dialogueinitiatives.org.
Jamal Benomar
Chair of ICDI
This edition opens with an article by sanctions expert Dr. Erica Moret, who uses the evolving war in Ukraine as a flashpoint to discuss the limitations of a status quo approach to sanctions but also the possibilities that flexible and internationally coordinated sanctions regimes could have in bringing about a negotiated peace settlement.Sanctions have played an important role in articulating Western condemnation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,and have isolated and put pressure on Putin’s regime, but how could they be employed to bring about an end to the conflict and ensure future security for Ukraine?
Syrian-Spanish scholar Jusaima Moaid-azm Peregrina does a deep dive into the outcomes of a decade of sanctions against Syria, as the United States Congress looks set to pass the Assad Regime Anti-Normalization Act of 2023. She argues that sanctions have in fact limited rather than strengthened Western influence over the regime and undermined United Nations mediation efforts, as Assad’s government has merely turned to Russia for military support and other trading partners such as India and China. She argues that sanctions need to be “integrated into a broader political strategy” if they are to be effective.
Sudan expert Dr. Suliman Baldo explores the evolving sanctions against the warring military parties in Sudan and their web of business interests that fuel their war chests. He suggests these sanctions may have brought parties to the negotiating table in May, but that more pressure needs to be applied to end a conflict could descend into full-scale civil war. The United States, European Union, and United Kingdom must double down on sanctions to stop weapons from being smuggled through the Sahel and the sale of drones from countries like Turkey, Baldo argues, adding that governments should also pledge commitments to the reconstruction effort.
Dr. Banafsheh Keynoush takes us through the past and present diplomatic negotiations between Iran, one of the most sanctioned countries in the world, and its archrival the United States. With Iran’s nuclear enrichment capacity rapidly increasing, due in part to the nation’s ability to adapt to sanctions, and the United States remaining inconsistent on the lifting of sanctions, the negotiations seem unlikely to yield results, she suggests.
Finally, Themba Zuri, takes us to Mali, a country that has not heeded to regional sanctions or international condemnation, and is a symbol of a shifting world order no longer defined by Western diplomatic dominance. Zuri takes us through the junta’s rising hostility towards France and the Western diplomatic community, that culminated in its announcement that it was kicking out the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) last month. As Russia gains increasing military and political influence in Mali and the region, what is next for this nation that has been shattered by armed extremist violence and military abuse?
Nelson Mandela
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