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When the Arab Spring erupted in Tunisia at the end of 2010, questions swirled about whether the revolutionary fever would spread south and oust the authoritarian regimes in Sub-Saharan Africa. More than a decade later, as young Kenyan Gen Z demonstrators continue to take to the street in the face of brutal police violence and call for Kenya president William Ruto to step down, questions as to whether we are on the verge of an ‘African Spring’ are emerging. Young Africans everywhere are watching what is happening in Kenya and there are signs that a major shake-up in countries on the continent might be set to happen. Much like the demonstrators during the Arab Spring, Gen Z demonstrators are driven by anger about inequality and corruption, are technologically savvy and adept at using social media – but in the face of a government, whose security forces are notorious for their brutality, will Gen Z succeed?
In this edition of Diplomacy Now, we focus on the African continent, including the citizens’ uprisings in Kenya and the perceptions of citizens in authoritarian Morocco, a north African state that was deeply shaken by but survived the Arab Spring. We then turn to failed mediation efforts in Ethiopia and the devastating impacts of the conflict in Sudan on women. Sadly, after more than a year of fighting in Sudan, there is no solid mediation effort of which to speak and the future of Sudanese people, who staged their own brave uprising years in 2018-2019, looks bleak. We then turn to Afghanistan, where many Afghan women activists believe that the UN conceded to the Taliban’s terms of excluding women and members of civil society in recent talks in Doha.
The assault on Gaza continues and in diplomatic circles from Tel Aviv to Washington debates about ‘the day after’ continue, at the exclusion of those who are most affected: the Palestinians. With almost forty thousand people killed and Israel’s most recent wave of airstrikes in the Al-Mawasi humanitarian zone, how a ceasefire might be achieved should be the most pressing focus, but instead many are fantasizing about a US-led ‘international administration’ for Gaza. We will be featuring more about this debate in the upcoming editions of Diplomacy Now.
As with every edition the views expressed by these authors are not all necessarily our own. However, ICDI remains committed to the ethos and philosophy that open debate, dialogue, diplomacy, and mediation, rather than armed conflict and war, offer the way forward to resolving any conflict.
Thank you for reading Diplomacy Now and we welcome your feedback at diplomacynow@dialogueinitiatives.org.
Jamal Benomar
Chair of ICDI
Professor Owino Okech, a specialist in African protest movements, explores the significance of the demonstrations in Kenya that had their roots in the opposition to the Finance Bill, that sought to increase taxes that would have impacted young and working class Kenyans. Unlike previous protest movements, the #RejectFinanceBill2024 protests that point to “a heightened trust deficit between citizens and the state” are not being led by civil society or political actors, are mobilizing people from all across Kenyan society and drawing on online crowdfunding. However, in the face of a state crackdown against demonstrators, the future of the movement still remains uncertain.
“Ruto faces a serious leadership challenge, which is the loss of trust from the electorate that brought him into office. Despite asserting his commitment to stopping extrajudicial killings, he has presided over abductions and the use of brute force against protesters. Ruto has adopted a classic tactic used to fracture movements, which is to discredit them through criminalisation,” writes Okech. “The movement continues to hold firm but needs to move into a stronger coordination format. It must guard against the risk of leader-centricity, which the government would use to diffuse the movement,” she adds.
Afghan-Canadian scholar, technologist and human rights activist Sara Wahedi explores the concerning precedent that the exclusion of women from UN-led talks in Doha has set for Afghan women.
“This marks the third attempt by the UN to navigate discussions on Afghanistan’s situation, since the Taliban seized power. However, the UN has continued to ignore the counsel of women, civil society organizations, and activists, who, from the planning stages of the first Doha meeting, have insisted on the full, equal, meaningful, and safe participation of Afghan women in talks with the Taliban,” she writes.
“The Doha talks will be remembered not for their outcomes or clear direction but for their mere ability to convene envoys and the Taliban, and holding meetings that contradict the UN’s stated values for human and women’s rights. From the UNSC to UN leaders, who have consistently stated that women’s rights are a priority, the Doha talks have shown otherwise. Doha III, in particular, has set a dangerous precedent by erasing women’s voices during crucial peacebuilding and accountability discussions.”
Moroccan researcher and investigative journalist Abdellatif El Hamamouchi does a deep dive into the most recent assessment of Moroccan citizens’ perceptions of the state conducted by the non-partisan research network Arab Barometer, which illustrates growing concerns about corruption and the economy.
“The poll revealed that poverty and vulnerability among Moroccans had risen and that citizens were complaining about rampant corruption within the agencies and institutions of the state,” he writes.
“In the face of the unprecedented rise in the cost of living, the Moroccan authorities continue to ignore the social crisis,” he writes. “Instead of working to solve this crisis, they (the authorities) are busy executing gigantic, unproductive projects – like the biggest soccer stadium in the world – that drain the state’s public finances as part of the preparations for the World Cup that Morocco will host in 2020 along with Spain and Portugal.”
“As official political actors seek refuge in ignoring the social and economic demands of citizens while relying in parallel on repressive tactics to muzzle critical voices, they are putting the country on the edge of an abyss and foreshadowing an unknown future,” he concludes.
Ethiopian scholar Tegbaru Yared explores the failures of the plans for a national dialogue initiative, transitional justice initiative and demobilization and disarmament and reintegration of combatants between the Ethiopian government and the Tigrayan forces. He argues that “stakeholders should perhaps prioritize solving the issues hampering the legitimacy and credibility of the national dialogue process,” first.
“Key political organizations and actors have rejected the process since its inception. Despite this, more than two years after its formation, the Ethiopian National Dialogue Commission recently embarked on an agenda selection phase. The commission plans to replicate this process at the regional state level, and select community representatives to take part in the national plenary,” Yared writes.
Claims of exclusion and lack of political participation from the opposition raise further problems and underline the need for a ‘reset’ by the government and the Ethiopian National Dialogue Commission.
“This calls for a reassessment of the current dialogue and a new vision for a more inclusive, transparent and participatory process. The government and commission could use the Addis Ababa process as a ‘pilot project’ to review its analysis of Ethiopia’s political dilemma, the role of the political elite in the process, and the method for selecting participants and setting the agenda,” he writes.
Gender and human rights expert Zeinab Abbas Badawi outlines the horrific situation facing women and girls – including rape and displacement – in the ongoing conflict in Sudan. While violence against women in Sudan has long standing historical, political and cultural roots, Badawi argues that the citizens uprisings of 2018-2019, made women more conscious of their rights.
“Women had no time to prepare themselves for its challenges, particularly since most were excluded from the seats of power. Any semblance of a functioning state disappeared on the first day of the conflict and there was a disintegration of the social norms that played an important role in protecting women.” she writes.
“Sudanese women are well aware that their involvement in negotiations to end the conflict means involvement in pivotal conversations about breaking up the old patriarchal and militarized structures,” she writes.
Nelson Mandela
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