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Armed conflict surged throughout the world this past year, with 233,000 people estimated to have been killed in conflicts, up 30 percent from last year, with Ukraine and Gaza leading in the number of casualties. The war on Gaza has spread throughout the Middle East, with Yemen now at risk of descending into full scale civil war and in direct conflict with Israel. The devastation also continues in countries like Sudan, where millions are displaced and at risk of starvation, with warring factions refusing to sit down at the negotiating table.
The year of 2024, was also one of the worst in history for children according to the United Nations Children’s Fund, who issued a grim end of year statement underlining that almost half a billion children are now living in conflict zones, “having their rights violated, including being killed and injured.” This figure has doubled since the 1990s, a decade marked by devastating conflicts in the Balkans, Cambodia, and throughout Africa in places like Liberia and Sierra Leone, but their suffering is now being broadcast real-time from places like Gaza.
Civilians weren’t the only casualties in 2024, the global norms and institutions that emerged in the aftermath of World War II, that were designed to protect our shared human rights and humanity, have been called into question. The moral authority of the United Nations has been shaken, with its failure to deliver the “immediate, unconditional and permanent ceasefire,” that would halt Israel’s assault on Gaza.
The U.S. veto continues to thwart recent attempts by all the 14 other members of the Security Council to pass a resolution to this end. While more than 45 UN independent experts have been raising the alarm on genocide for months, the UN secretariat has remained mute, despite the fact that the UN’s own International Court of Justice has determined it is “plausible” a genocide is taking place in Gaza. Furthermore, UN watchers have noted that while the General Assembly has passed a resolution calling for the “immediate, unconditional and permanent ceasefire,” in contrast to date the UN secretariat continues to call for a “humanitarian ceasefire,” and hasn’t adjusted its discourse to reflect the language agreed upon by 158 member states.
As with Gaza, the UN has failed to play any meaningful role in mediation in other conflicts in this past year. Regional and sub-regional organizations in Africa have similarly failed to usher in an end to conflicts in places like Sudan and the Sahel. Meanwhile, a fragile ceasefire negotiated by the United States with no UN involvement seems to be holding in Lebanon. The unexpected fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, has brought about both hope and uncertainty about the transition. The whole region continues to be engulfed in war and conflict, with no clear end in sight, particularly with the escalating confrontations between Israel and the Houthis, which could potentially reignite Yemen’s civil war.
While the UN and global powers have failed this past year to make headway in ending any war, it is still hoped that sustained local and regional efforts, including civil society initiatives, could lead to breakthroughs. The legacy of the late former US president Jimmy Carter, who I was honored to work for as Director of Human Rights Programs in the early 1990s, illustrates this. Carter showed us the powerful role that individuals and non-governmental organizations with stature and integrity can play in enabling peace in some of the world’s most devastating conflicts.
In this edition of Diplomacy Now five authors offer incisive analyses of conflicts in Syria, Yemen, Sudan, the Maghreb and the Middle East at large, reflecting on what happened in 2024 and what might unfold in 2025.
As with every edition the views expressed by these authors are not all necessarily our own. However, ICDI remains committed to the ethos and philosophy that open debate, dialogue, diplomacy, and mediation, rather than armed conflict and war, offer the way forward to resolving any conflict.
Thank you for reading Diplomacy Now and we welcome your feedback at diplomacynow@dialogueinitiatives.org.
Chair of ICDI
Sarah Khalil and Nadda Osman cover the key events that shaped one of the most tumultuous years in the Middle East and North Africa, from the escalating war in Gaza, to Israeli’s assassination of Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon and and Yahya Sinwar in Gaza, Iran’s strikes on Israel, Western military strikes on Yemen, the fall of Assad and Donald Trump’s nomination of Massad Boulous to be his advisor on Arab and Middle Eastern Affairs.
Spanish-Syrian scholar Dr Jusaima Moaid-azm Peregrina walks us through the recent unexpected developments in Syria, and the challenges of what is exepected to be a difficult transition.
“While the coalition of forces that swept into power on December 8 appears to grasp the difficulties of transitioning to a stable system so far, the reality is that Syria is only at the beginning of its journey toward peace: True conflict resolution means addressing these structural, societal, and humanitarian challenges head-on – this conversation has only just begun,” she writes.
Yemeni journalist and researcher Afrah Nasser explores the challenges ahead for the war-wracked nation of Yemen, and what the collapse of Assad’s regime and Iran’s diminished influence in the region means for the Houthis and the balance of power in Yemen. She warns that the escalating conflict between the Houthis and Israel could reignite a full-scale civil war in Yemen.
“Intensified confrontation between the Houthi armed group and Israel might ignite the resumption of Yemen’s civil war 2.0. The Yemeni anti-Houthi camp has been drumming for war with the Houthis since Israel started attacking Yemen in July 2024,” she writes.
“To facilitate peace in Yemen by next year, the international community should leverage Iran’s waning influence to encourage the Houthis to reconsider their hardline stance and engage in inclusive dialogue. This requires pressuring all parties to engage productively, ensuring the meaningful participation of diverse Yemeni factions, women, youth, and civil society groups in peace talks,” she argues.
Dr Suliman Baldo offers an overview of the recent developments in Sudan’s conflict between two military factions, who have been stoking up ethnic tensions for political and military ends. With 14 million displaced, many facing hunger and failed diplomatic attempts by regional African bodies and the US and a Trump administration that is likely to show little interest in the conflict, the outlook seems grim. However, civilian groups are stepping up, particularly in aid efforts and could play a role in the peace process Baldo argues.
“Civilian efforts to articulate a political program for the future are also ongoing and their capacity to chart a way forward is ultimately likely to determine whether the country can free itself from its history of military dominance and chart a way towards peace and democracy,” he concludes.
Analyst Riccardo Fabiani delves into the escalating tensions between long-time Maghreb rivals Algeria and Morocco and what impact the recent election of Donald J. Trump could have on the relations between the two.
“Locked in a slow-burning diplomatic crisis with no end in sight, Algeria and Morocco approach the new year with diverging expectations and facing a modest but rising risk of accidental escalation. Rooted in Algiers’ perception of growing insecurity and Rabat’s confident and daring foreign policy, the tensions between them have risked at times triggering accidental escalation over the disputed territory of Western Sahara,” he writes.
Nelson Mandela
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