Images of Palestinians greeting loved ones in Gaza after a recent ceasefire offer a momentary cause for celebration. Yet as the cameras pan out and show the scale of devastation, with more than 70 percent of buildings and structures in Gaza blown to bits, one cannot help but ask the question – why did this take so long? The deal, that was drafted months ago, was reached in the early days of President Donald J. Trump’s term, demonstrating that the United States, as it has in the past, can exert due pressure on Israel when it wants to. Former president Ronald Regan did when Israel occupied Lebanon in the 1980s, and George H.W. Bush tied loans to commitments to stop settler expansion. But there is still scepticism, as to whether the ceasefire will hold, and there has been little serious thought put into how Gaza will be built and rebuilt and governed. Think tanks in Tel Aviv and Washington D.C. have produced papers, and proposed ideas and Palestinian voices have been sidelined, on the issue of the ‘day after.’ Diplomacy Now featured some of these voices in a previous edition titled A Day After for Gaza?
In Damascus, Western diplomats have flown in to meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa, the leader of Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, who is now the interim president of Syria. While al-Sharaa, the head of an al-Qaeda affiliated terrorist group, is claiming he will usher in “a new era far removed from sectarianism,” and spoken about dialogues and transitions, many Syrians and Syria-observers, unlike their diplomat counterparts, are watching with caution. Among key areas of concern are the make-up of the transitional government, which appears to have been largely drawn from HTS, and the recently announced national dialogue, which appears to only be allowing for individuals rather than political parties. While the fall of the Assad regime may have been a positive step forward, whether or not it marks a new era for Syria remains to be seen.
Meanwhile, the crisis in Sudan continues, despite numerous diplomatic initiatives and eastern Congo, has erupted into conflict. In Africa, as elsewhere, the ongoing problem with diplomatic efforts being initiatives too late, and parties to or backers of conflict, taking up places at the negotiating table continues, and the UN continues to be sidelined. However, there are early signs that the UN’s biggest funder, and one of its most powerful Security Council members could be planning to shake things up.
More on that at a later date. Turning to this month’s edition of Diplomacy Now, we have five articles, covering Gaza and the UN, along with the waning role of the UN. in mediation, a piece on the shifting political dynamics in Lebanon, and the ongoing challenges confronting Libya.
As with every edition the views expressed by these authors are not all necessarily our own. However, ICDI remains committed to the ethos and philosophy that open debate, dialogue, diplomacy, and mediation, rather than armed conflict and war, offer the way forward to resolving any conflict.
Thank you for reading Diplomacy Now and we welcome your feedback at diplomacynow@dialogueinitiatives.org.
Lebanon has been without a president for 26 months. On January 9, in the midst of mounting international pressure the Lebanese parliament elected President Joseph Aoun, who looks set to sideline Hezbollah from political power. What does this mean for Lebanon’s political configuration? Analyst Joe Macaron explores these questions.
“Lebanon is in a transformational period that remains uncertain. The international pressure is unprecedented to implement the ceasefire with Israel and adopt economic reforms, and the national consensus in Lebanon is around the need to find a new way forward for the country. Business as usual is no longer possible or affordable,” he writes.
Libyan-American scholar Haneen Ahmida explores the prospects for peace in a country divided between East and West.
“The fighting amongst militias may have ceased for now, but the major issue in connection with rebuilding the Libyan government is solving the ongoing political fragmentation across the country,” she writes.
What could solve this? Elections and genuinely inclusive dialogue. But with failed UN leadership and major powers backing militias, this seems unlikely in 2025.
Journalist Rabia Ali explores the crisis of credibility in UN mediation and the rise of states like Turkey, China, and Qatar in mediating conflicts.
“Recent years have seen a noticeable trend of individual nations stepping into roles traditionally filled by the UN, acting as mediators in conflicts around the world. This shift, according to experts, has not only highlighted the limitations of the UN but also raised questions about the efficacy of its structural framework and leadership strategies,” she writes.
Centre 4s analyst Liman Nawada explores the historical tensions between Chad and its neighbor Sudan, who have each accused one another of fuelling rebellions in their countries. Chadian President Mahamat Déby Itno has claimed to be neutral in the Sudan conflict, but growing economic ties to the UAE, who have been backing General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo alias Hemeti who leads the Rapid Support Forces, in the conflict against the Sudan Armed Forces. Could this spell conflict between the two states?
Professor Alfred de Zayas, a former UN law and rights specialist, delves into the concept of the ‘Right to Protect’ or R2P in the UN charter and why more hasn’t been done to prevent the genocide in Gaza.
“What many politicians – and academics – have not yet come to understand is the fact that applying international law selectively, corrupting the clear language of SC and GA resolutions are corrosive of international law and international institutions. Such acts have consequences, namely a loss of authority and credibility by the United Nations and its agencies, and more generally a growing cynicism about the validity of international norms and the universality of human rights,” he writes.
Nelson Mandela
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