Diplomacy has taken a hard hit this month and nowhere can this be more seen than Gaza, where a fragile ceasefire looks to be falling apart and the possibility of renewed war looms large. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is again denying the passage of humanitarian aid into Gaza, in an attempt to pressure Hamas into accepting a revised US supported ceasefire plan that backtracks on agreements for Israel to depart from positions in Gaza.
This week Egypt is hosting the Arab League summit to discuss Gaza’s reconstruction and to counter US President Donald J. Trump’s “Riviera” plan. However, the outlook remains unclear as does the future of the war and when there will be a ‘day after.’
Meanwhile the response to the conflict in Ukraine is showing fractures in old Western alliances. A hastily put together European Summit was held in London, with European states committing to standing with Ukraine after President Volodymyr Zelensky’s disastrous meeting in the White House. But will the Europeans be able to play a meaningful role after relying on the United States to do heavy lifting? Will European military and economic loans and aid be enough to sustain Ukraine throughout the war?
In Lebanon, the ceasefire remains precarious, with Israel violating the agreement and continuing to launch strikes and occupy Lebanese territories. The recent appointment of the president and the prime minister, which many believe came as an imposition by some regional and international actors, following the deal that was negotiated by former US envoy Adam Hochstein, once a member of the Israeli Defence Force, has led commentators to question whether Lebanon is now under trusteeship.
In Africa, diplomatic efforts in two of the continent’s deadliest conflicts have failed to produce results. After almost two years of war in Sudan and multiple attempts at diplomatic negotiations, the Rapid Support Forces and its supporters signed a charter in Kenya declaring the formation of a parallel government. And in the Democratic Republic of Congo many high level meetings involving regional bodies and heads of state continue, as does M23’s capture of key towns, coupled with the killing of thousands of civilians.
While the United Nations has been absent from these mediation efforts, it has come into the firing line of the US senate, with Republican Senator Mike Lee, sponsoring a bill calling for the US’s withdrawal from the UN, known as the ‘Disengaging Entirely from the United Nations (DEFUND) Act.’ Lee charges the UN with irresponsible use of US funds, having a ‘bloated’ bureaucracy, accuses the World Health Organization of being a ‘mouthpiece’ for China, and hits out at the UN ‘supporting ICC-led efforts to prosecute Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. While the bill will probably not pass, the US is likely to demand a thorough review of UN mandates and activities, which could be an opportunity in disguise for serious reform.
In this edition of Diplomacy Now, international law professor and ICDI’s legal counsel Marc Weller takes us through the shifting US and European diplomacy around Ukraine and how the conflict might realistically come to an end.
Former State Department diplomat Nabeel A. Khoury explores what he sees as Trump’s ambitious plan to reshape the Middle East and strengthen Israeli power.
American scholar Scott Atram, who led an eye-opening survey of Palestinians and Gazans, about the conflict and who they want to lead in the aftermath of the war, explores why many of the ‘day after’ plans for Gaza are misguided. In Yemen, journalist Shuaib Almosawa writes about the dire consequences the redesignation of the Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organization could have for ordinary people living in an ongoing humanitarian crisis.
Finally, longtime UN-official Bertrand Ramcharan writes a plea to the US to stay in the UN and explores the cost of its departure.
As with every edition the views expressed by these authors are not all necessarily our own. However, ICDI remains committed to the ethos and philosophy that open debate, dialogue, diplomacy, and mediation, rather than armed conflict and war, offer the way forward to resolving any conflict.
Thank you for reading Diplomacy Now and we welcome your feedback at diplomacynow@dialogueinitiatives.org.
Jamal Benomar
Chair of ICDI
International law professor and ICDI’s legal counsel Marc Weller takes us through the recent diplomatic developments surrounding the United States, Russia and Ukraine in recent weeks and what it foreshadows for the future. He also poses possible scenarios for a peace deal.
“The catastrophe at the Oval Office did illuminate a number of things,” writes Weller.
“Ukraine has not given up on its demand to have some or all of its occupied territory back, at least as an opening position. A simple ceasefire that would freeze the present line of confrontation might not be enough in place of a more comprehensive settlement. And, any such settlement would need to include the famous security guarantees for Ukraine.”
Dr. Nabeel A. Khoury who served in the US foreign service for 25 years, envisions an Israeli dominated region, and further assaults on Gazans and Palestinians.
“The administration of United States President Donald J. Trump and Israel’s right-wing government, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have an ambitious plan to reshape the Middle East that dovetails with their own ideological proclivities and financial and political interests,” he writes.
“Given the current power configuration, nothing stands in the way of a new US-Israel dominated region, unless a new pan-Arab bloc finds leverage to stop the takeover.”
American scholar and anthropologist Scott Atran explores what can be learned from a survey he oversaw of Gazans and Palestinians, how Palestinians see the conflict with Israel, how they view their political leaders, and what they want for the future, and its discord with ‘day after’ plans.
“After waging 15 months of “total war” and achieving many of its declared material objectives, Israel may be further from pacifying Gaza than ever. This is not just because Israel has not offered anything resembling a political strategy or a plausible plan for a Palestinian future, while further radicalizing Palestinians to seek revenge for relatives killed and homes lost,” he writes. “It is also because Gazans, at least the most committed among them, believe that their identity and place in the world are more imperiled than ever: a sentiment not unlike the one that inspired the establishment of the Jewish state and fostered its people’s intense will to fight.”
Longtime former UN official and human rights expert Bertrand Ramcharan explores the UN’s shortfalls and successes in global peace, health and the environment, but argues that it is ultimately worth saving and US support is key to that.
“It would be an unfortunate and sad day were the US to leave the world organization. For a start, it would no longer be the ‘United’ Nations. Second, it would lose the practical wisdom of the US,” he writes. “Third, it would lose almost a quarter of its funding, which the US now pays to the regular budget of the UN, not counting America’s substantial voluntary contributions to humanitarian and other operations, such as peacemaking, peacekeeping, and peacebuilding operations.”
Yemeni journalist Shuaib Almosawa speaks to ordinary Yemenis and those working in the aid sector about the implication of the Houthis being redesignated a ‘Foreign Terrorist Organization’ by the United States for the war-embattled country.
“Aid groups and experts on Yemen believe that Trump’s decision to reimpose the FTO designation will severely harm Yemen’s already fragile economy and further exacerbate the humanitarian crisis,” Almosawa writes, adding that classification is unlikely to deter attacks on shipping vessels in the Red Sea.
Nelson Mandela
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