The last few weeks have been marked by renewed chaos and drama in ongoing conflicts around the world, with diplomacy taking the back seat. The Sudan Armed Forces’ seizure of the capital Khartoum off its rival the Rapid Support Forces in recent weeks, one of the world’s most devastating, has thrown the underreported on conflict back into the spotlight. “Khartoum is a burnt-out shell,” one reporter described the city after it was taken by the army, with images of shattered buildings following. After two years of fighting, 150,000 war-related deaths, the displacement of 13 million, and failed mediation efforts, there is no end in sight for the nation where citizens only a few years back peacefully rose up in what was dubbed the “Second Arab Spring.” Despite the gravity of the situation, diplomatic efforts are still lagging.
Meanwhile, the world’s youngest nation South Sudan appears to be on the brink of a second civil war, with a 2018 power sharing deal between Salva Kiir and Riek Machar seemingly falling apart. The arrest of Vice President Machar has raised alarm bells in the UN and diplomatic community and violence has intensified around the country. Several envoys from neighboring countries have visited the country, but no progress has been made so far. Nevertheless, an initiative spearheaded by religious leaders and supported by civil society looks potentially promising. In Congo, a nation the size of Western Europe, the crisis continues to escalate with M23 rebels refusing to attend meetings facilitated by Angola, after the imposition of European sanctions. While Angola has bowed out of mediation efforts, forthcoming meetings between the rebels and the Congolese government will be held in Doha in the coming days, following a recent meeting by the presidents of Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo. The United Nations, which has had peacekeeping missions in all these three African countries is nowhere to be seen in any of these negotiations.
In the Middle East, the Arab Plan to reconstruct Gaza has been announced, providing a viable alternative to President Donald Trump’s ‘Riviera’ proposal, but the renewed Israeli offensives on Gaza, have relegated such plans to theory. There are discussions about renewed negotiations, but again there is no end in sight.
Meanwhile in Syria, after a disappointing one-day national dialogue conference, a transitional government has been formed. The 23-person cabinet is composed of members from a mixture of ethnic and religious groups, with only one woman among them, a testament to the grim status quo in Middle Eastern politics. The verdict is still out on whether President Ahmed al-Sharaa and Hayat Tahrir al Sham can unite the country, with the executions of Alawites in coastal towns earlier in March raising questions about whether these gestures of inclusion are sincere.
Regarding the the Russia-Ukraine conflict there have been recent intense diplomatic efforts, but many observers believe a not well conceived mediation may be heading to defacto partition of Ukraine.
In New York and Geneva an air of uncertainty hangs over the UN, with looming threats from the new US administration to drastically reduce funding. The UN Secretary General António Guterres in March announced the ‘UN80 Initiative,’ a dedicated internal task force, that will ‘review’ the UN’s performance and mandates. UN watchers are skeptical as to whether this effort, led by an entrenched bureaucracy, is sincere or whether it is a scramble to curtail possible US funding cuts. Whether there will be a shake up or shake down of the system still remains unclear.
In this month’s edition we spotlight the perspectives of two Palestinian development experts on the ‘day after’ and the Arab Plan for Gaza. Turning to Syria, we feature articles on the irrelevance of the UN mediation in Syria and an analysis of the disappointing recent national dialogue conference. We conclude this edition with an article on the devastation of Saudi Arabia’s poorly conceived intervention in Yemen 10 years ago that backfired and helped elevate a rag-tag militia to a regional force to contend with.
As with every edition the views expressed by these authors are not all necessarily our own. However, ICDI remains committed to the ethos and philosophy that open debate, dialogue, diplomacy, and mediation, rather than armed conflict and war, offer the way forward to resolving any conflict.
Thank you for reading Diplomacy Now and we welcome your feedback at diplomacynow@dialogueinitiatives.org.
Jamal Benomar
Chair of IC
Mamoun Besaiso who served as the Head of the National Team for Gaza Reconstruction under the Palestinian government and assumed a leading role in the reconstruction efforts following the wars of 2008, 2012, 2014, and 2021, offers an overview of the Egyptian-led Arab Plan and the lessons that must be learned if it is to be a success.
“The key strengths of the plan lie in its regional legitimacy, the diplomatic leverage it offers, and the financial resources available to support its implementation. These factors enhance its potential for success and widespread support,” he writes.
“It is in the best interest of the Palestinian people that the reconstruction of Gaza is accompanied by a comprehensive reconstruction of the Palestinian political system, ending internal divisions and establishing a central government that governs both Gaza and the West Bank,” he adds.
Palestinian scholar Omar Shaban takes us through the scale of the devastation and astronomical cost estimates for the reconstruction plan, which will only be effective in the face of an enduring ceasefire.
“According to the Arab League plan, a new government will be formed to rule the civil affairs in the Gaza Strip, ensuring that its members are independent Palestinian technocrats unaffiliated with any political or military party. Learning from past governance experiences in Gaza, a post-war government must finally prioritize peacebuilding, economic stability, and the protection of human life in Gaza,” he continues.
Journalist Hussam Hammoud offers an overview of Syria’s day-long national dialogue that was marked by exclusion of key political figures and late invitations to the press.
“The long-awaited Syrian National Dialogue Conference was presented by the new Syrian authorities, led by President Ahmed al-Sharaa, as a landmark event and as an opportunity to bring Syrians together to discuss a new political vision and build a more inclusive future. However, despite the symbolic significance of such a gathering, the structure, execution, and outcome of the event fell far short of expectations. Rather than providing a space for genuine political dialogue, the conference became a stage-managed exercise with limited participation and no binding outcomes,” he writes.
Hasmik Egian, former chief of staff in the Office of the UN Special Envoy for Syria, considers the UN’s past and present record on Syria and what it might be in the future.
“The time is long past to concede that the UN’s decade-long political mediation work and the Office of the Special Envoy for Syria leading this role in settling the Syrian war needs to be abolished. A different platform must be identified to carry on mediation, which could be endorsed by the Security Council. A role for the UN in Syria during this critical transitional period is still necessary, and a significant part is to be played by the UN country team in Syria, with its humanitarian and development agencies,” she writes.
Yemeni journalist and researcher Afrah Nasser takes us through a decade of turmoil in Yemen, sometimes dubbed “Saudi Arabia’s Vietnam” and the future that lies ahead.
“The Houthi strikes in the Red Sea … in solidarity with Gaza, highlight the missteps of the Saudi war, which ended up elevating the Houthis as a regional actor. Once only a tribal insurgency with aims on northern Yemen, the Houthis now have global clout. The fact that both the Biden administration and Trump administration have ordered US airstrikes against them only plays into Houthi narratives that they are leading the armed resistance to both the US and Israel. But the Houthis’ survival still ultimately depends on negotiation, not endless war,” she writes.
Nelson Mandela
