After years of deadlock in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and ongoing tensions with Iran, United States President Donald Trump has made surprise moves by initiating direct negotiations with both countries, something his predecessors have failed to do. There is cautious optimism regarding the renewed dialogue between the US and Iran, with the US president at this point seeming to choose words over war, despite pressure from many of his allies to take a more belligerent stance.
While Trump’s earlier engagement with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy got off to a shaky start, his administration has managed to initiate direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine – a positive step after three years of war. The Trump administration is also engaged in diplomatic negotiations between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo – a rare instance in which the US has stepped up to play a significant role in attempting to end an African conflict. As the US engages in diplomatic initiatives regarding Ukraine, Iran and DRC, the United Nations is nowhere to be seen. As conflicts rage on in Sudan and Gaza, with no end in sight, the decline of the UN role in peace and security is even more striking.
Recently there has been new turmoil in the UN with the White House’s request for Congress not to fund the regular UN or peacekeeping budget this year. Leaked documents from the UN Secretariat have only shown a menu of potential measures, most of them requiring decisions by member states in the intergovernmental process. Many observers are beginning to state that what is coming out of the UN Secretariat is 8.5 years late and even some are going as far as saying maybe this task should be left to a new Secretary-General. It is unclear at this stage what specific proposals the UN Secretariat will put forward, and it is unclear also how the wider UN membership will address these issues.
While one of the world’s biggest institutions, that set forth a noble vision of multilateral diplomacy, is floundering, Europe is becoming increasingly preoccupied with bolstering its military capacities, reflecting global trends towards increasing military spending, while drastically cutting back on humanitarian and development assistance. Last year the world spent $2.7 trillion on its militaries, marking an almost 10 percent surge from the previous year, with 100 countries raising military spending. The European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has presented a 800-billion-euro security plan dubbed ‘ReArm Europe.’ The plan seems to present the illusion that Europe may become a major global military power, independent of the US. Meanwhile, European diplomacy remains on the backburner.
In this edition of Diplomacy Now we feature two articles on the recent US-Iran talks that explore what they spell for relations between the two countries, and an analysis on the possibilities of a settlement between Russia and Ukraine. We feature an article on the crisis in South Sudan and the need to reinvigorate diplomatic efforts. We also feature an article by a seasoned diplomat who served in Sudan about the failures of mediation efforts in the country to date.
As with every edition the views expressed by these authors are not all necessarily our own. However, ICDI remains committed to the ethos and philosophy that open debate, dialogue, diplomacy, and mediation, rather than armed conflict and war, offer the way forward to resolving any conflict.
Thank you for reading Diplomacy Now and we welcome your feedback at diplomacynow@dialogueinitiatives.org.
Jamal Benomar
Chair of ICDI
Arman Mahmoudian, a scholar specializing in Iran, explores the recent trajectory of US-Iranian diplomacy, particularly focusing on the shifts in the policy of Donald Trump over the span of two terms and what shifts the recent talks could point to.
“When Trump returned to office in 2024, fears of a military confrontation resurfaced, fueled by his past withdrawal from the JCPOA and the killing of Iranian commander Qassim Soleimani in 2020. Yet, despite lingering tensions, immediate escalation appears less likely than initially feared,” he writes.
“Another important development is that both sides have become more sophisticated in reading each other’s psychology, “he writes.
“While recent developments signal cautious optimism regarding a political resolution to the nuclear dispute, ultimately, only time will reveal whether a final agreement can be achieved,” he concludes.
Abdul Mohammed, a former UN advisor on mediation in Sudan, writes an urgent appeal for mediation efforts to be ramped up to help end this devastating conflict.
“The war in Sudan is a stain on the conscience of the world. The belligerents have chosen destruction. Their foreign enablers have fueled it. But we — the mediators, the international community — have failed to confront it with the seriousness the moment demands,” he writes.
Scholar and documentary filmmaker Said Salmi explores the most likely options for an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, that will likely involve compromise from Ukraine.
“In contrast, Ukraine, supported by the European powers, is demanding a complete withdrawal of Russian forces from the occupied territories, as well as the provision of multidimensional security guarantees. However, as this path has faltered and proven difficult to impose on the ground, attention has been turning to a more realistic scenario that, to a large extent, resembles the armistice agreement between the two Koreas in 1953. It is built on freezing the conflict and observing a ceasefire without reaching a comprehensive peace agreement,” he writes.
Academic Sahar Razavi explores the recent diplomatic shifts between the US-Iran and the tentative progress made in recent weeks.
“Though the “maximum pressure campaign” had failed to actualize the Trump Administration’s objectives during his first term, upon taking office for the second time in January 2025, the president announced a return to maximum pressure alongside a desire to engage in talks with Iran about a new “nuclear deal.” In the years since the initial onset of the “maximum pressure campaign,” Iran has strengthened its ties with Russia and China which has enabled it to withstand some of the pressure exerted by the Trump Administration,” she writes.
“At the same time, damage to neighboring allies Hamas and Hezbollah since October 7, 2023, and the fall of Iran’s staunch ally Bashar al-Asad in Syria have limited Iran’s avenues of resistance against further erosion of its position of relative power in the region. It is as yet unclear what will be the new terms the United States intends to propose, but Iran has signaled its willingness to return to a deal under the condition that the terms would not violate Iran’s sovereignty, defensive capabilities, or rights under the NPT,” she continues.
South Sudanese human rights defender Jackline Nasiwa explores the roots of the current conflict in South Sudan and why a peace agreement has failed to endure.
“Post-liberation South Sudan has come to be defined by human rights abuses, loss of lives, poverty, under development and internal displacement in addition to mounting refugees in neighboring East African countries. South Sudan has made headlines recently with renewed fears that it could return to civil war, with divisions deepening between the SPLM’s factions led by President Salva Kiir and Vice President Rieck Machar,” she writes.
“Kiir’s arrest of his longtime political rival, Machar, in March, years after a power-sharing agreement was signed, has only underscored the need for greater diplomatic efforts to be made to establish peace in Africa and the world’s youngest nation,” she writes.
Nelson Mandela
