The Western Sahara question may be experiencing an evolution, with Western governments appearing to be leaning toward supporting the Moroccan monarchy’s 2007 proposal for ‘autonomy’ as a solution to end one of the world’s longest running conflicts. There could be geopolitical reasons behind this seeming shift in Western policy on the Western Sahara issue, but the question of how the West will reconcile international legitimacy with autonomy, particularly within the context of Moroccan authoritarianism, remains unclear.
As is well known, the dispute over the Sahara is a legacy of European colonization in North Africa and is an issue that was heavily influenced by the Cold War. Between 1975 and 1991 there was a war between Morocco and the Polisario Front, who represented the Sahrawis. The truce lasted from 1991 until 2021, when hostilities resumed between the two sides, but this time it is more about limited military skirmishes than a real war. For close to two decades there has been a diplomatic stalemate on the issue of whether Western Sahara would become an ‘autonomous’ region or whether the path to independence would be pursued.
‘Autonomy’ vs ‘independence’
In 2007, due to repeated requests by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to resolve the issue, Morocco presented a formal proposal for autonomy in 2007, granting the Saharawis the right to manage all sectors, such as education, economy, municipalities, excluding defense and foreign affairs. The five-page document addressed to the UNSC, claims “the Sahara populations will themselves run their affairs democratically, through legislative, executive and judicial bodies enjoying exclusive powers,” while stating the Moroccan state will “keep its powers in the royal domains, especially with respect to defense, external relations and the constitutional and religious prerogatives of His Majesty the King.” While the proposal sounds appealing, how it would be executed within the context of an authoritarian Moroccan state remains unclear.
In contrast, the Polisario Front insists on independence, through a referendum of self-determination, to establish a new state, and claims that the new state will accommodate Morocco’s interests in the Sahara. The UN has failed to reconcile the two proposals despite the efforts of a number of special envoys to the conflict, including former US Secretary of State James Baker.
In the last decade, some Western states have begun to consider supporting the political solution proposed by Rabat, i.e. autonomy for the Sahrawis within the framework of Moroccan sovereignty. Some European countries had welcomed the autonomy proposal as early as 2007, when Morocco presented it to the Security Council. However, there appears to have been a turning point when the United States President Donald Trump decided to recognize Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara on December 9, 2020. The administration of Democratic President Joe Biden did not change the decision, but continued to stress in the Security Council its support for UN efforts to find a negotiated solution ‘that provides’ for self determination for the people of Western Sahara, that has been a critical part in all SC resolutions since 2007.
Has Madrid followed suit?
In April 2022, Madrid recognized autonomy as the appropriate solution to the conflict. Paris officially announced at the end of July 2024 that autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty is the most appropriate and unique solution to the Western Sahara conflict, however, that had always been its tacit policy approach for decades. The positions of the three Western countries are both highly symbolic and practical. The U.S. remains the world’s leading power and their diplomatic position on Western Sahara holds significant weight. Spain is a former colonial power in the Sahara, so its political stance in favor of autonomy largely favors the Moroccan position. France is the leading power in the Mediterranean and can convince other European Union members to support autonomy. Countries such as the Netherlands, Germany and Finland have expressed their relative inclination in favor of the autonomy proposal. If Britain supports autonomy, its position would be highly symbolic, as it would be the third country with veto power in the Security Council to consider autonomy as the only solution to the Sahara conflict. However, it should be noted that in both Spain and France support for autonomy has come from the prime minister and president and doesn’t enjoy widespread support, with major political parties in both countries opposing this stance.
Western Sahara and global power plays
In general, the support of some Western countries for the autonomy proposal in the Western Sahara conflict must be seen within the context of geopolitical developments in the world, mainly the rivalry between the West and the ‘East’ led by China and Russia. Consequently, there are factors that explain the West’s position, which are related to Algeria, China and Russia.
First of all, these Western countries are uncomfortable with the policy pursued by Algeria, the biggest supporter of the Polisario Front. Economically, Algeria is using the gas card to put pressure on European countries, despite the fact that Algeria’s only market for gas exports is Europe. If Europe decided to boycott Algerian gas, the economy of this north African country would collapse. At the same time, Algeria wants to reduce economic relations with the EU by revising the free trade agreement signed in 2004. In exchange, it favors countries such as Turkey and China in trade. France is the country most affected by Algerian economic policy.
Second, Algeria is gradually becoming a kind of new Kaliningrad in NATO’s south, similar to Kaliningrad in the north. Algeria has significantly increased military and intelligence cooperation with Russia and China. It possesses a powerful military arsenal, ranking it among the 25 largest armies in the world. Since the end of the 18th century, the southern Mediterranean has not posed a threat to the northern shore. The countries on the southern shore fell prey to European colonization. This has now changed, as no European country, including France (with the nuclear exception), has missiles as powerful as the Russian missiles in Algeria.
Thirdly, European countries such as France and Spain have failed to develop their relations with Algeria. These countries are forced to adopt the Algerian view on the Western Sahara dispute if they want to maintain good economic, political and diplomatic relations with Algiers. France has not succeeded in improving its relations with Algeria due, on the one hand, to the influence of colonial memory and, on the other hand, to Paris’ readiness to support Morocco’s position on the Sahara dispute. When Madrid announced its support for autonomy in the Sahara, Algeria withdrew its ambassador in April 2022. It also withdrew it from France when Paris supported autonomy in July 2024.
New Cold War politics at play?
Fourthly, and this is the most important factor, the world is witnessing a rivalry between the West and the bloc led by China and Russia that some argue is a new Cold War. There is a great race between the two sides to consolidate their influence in different regions of the world. In response to Washington’s strategy to strengthen its influence in the Pacific, especially near China, Beijing is trying with Moscow to get military bases on the Atlantic coast. The West wants to prevent Russia and China from accessing the Atlantic, because this ocean has been Western since the discovery of the American continent. In addition to Christian culture, the West is the economic and military space linking the two sides of the Atlantic, especially the northern one. Capitals such as Paris, Madrid, London and above all Washington are convinced that they cannot tolerate a future Chinese and Russian presence on the Atlantic coasts. The West has had enough trouble with the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad and does not want a new Kaliningrad in the South Atlantic. On February 10, 2024, the Wall Street Journal published in an analysis article how Washington is doing everything possible to prevent China from having a military base in the Atlantic. In this connection, if Western Sahara becomes independent from Morocco and becomes a sovereign state, it will be in the orbit of Algeria, which means it will be more inclined to develop closer relations with Russia and China. Key Western countries will not accept this scenario at all, especially since the coasts of Western Sahara are very close to the strategic sea lane: the Strait of Gibraltar. That is why they will always be hesitant to support the creation of an independent state in the Sahara. Moreover, concerned about Russian and Chinese influence in the Sahel region, the West is working to prevent the influence of these two countries from reaching Mauritania, which is why it grants the Nouakchott government privileges in trade with the European Union and military facilities with NATO. Some observers believe the West is behind the “Atlantic Initiative” presented by Rabat in December 2023, which aims to link the Sahel countries with the Moroccan and Western economies in order to minimize Chinese influence.
Serious efforts must be made for Saharawis to accept autonomy
In summary, Western powers did not resolve the Sahara conflict after the end of the Cold War in 1991, and they could have done so because the West was the only undisputed power on the international political scene. It only contributed to the 1991 cease-fire. Now, with the onset of a new Cold War led by China threatening the hegemony of the West and the throne of the United States, it seems that some Western countries, albeit discreetly, want to gradually reconcile international legality with the recognition of autonomy in Western Sahara, so that the Atlantic remains Western and distanced from the hegemony of Russia and China.
The process of Western support for Morocco is not an easy task, because the Polisario Front, with the unconditional support of Algeria, South Africa, as well as Russia, China and numerous other countries around the world, will defend self-determination. However, one of the key missing pieces in this process which undermine the credibility and feasibility of the Moroccan autonomy plan, is the absence of democratic governance in Morocco.
For the autonomy plan to gain traction among Sahrawis, Morocco would have to transition from autocratic rule to democracy first. This would also involve an end to the arbitrary arrests of peaceful protestors, journalists and human rights activists that have taken place in recent years, stepping up the fight against corruption and holding free and fair elections without excluding any political movement. If Morocco transitions to a genuine democratic system, more Western countries might be inclined to take the autonomy plan more seriously.
Majdoubi Bahida is a Doctor of Journalism, specializing in European Union-Maghreb relations.
