The state of Libya today does not offer the sense of hope that was widespread with the fall of the late Muammar Gaddafi’s regime over a decade ago. The aftermath of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) intervention in 2011 posed an opportunity for various armed groups to rise up and jockey for power. This has led to a protracted civil war that has been backed by powerful external states and led to further fragmentation of the Libyan state.
With Libya now divided and largely led by two leaders – Abdul Hamid Dbeibah located in the West in Tripoli, and General Khalifa Haftar allied with the Libyan National Army in the East in Tobruk – tensions over political power remain heightened. A larger proxy war that has been fuelled by external states and political actors who have allied with each side continues to entrench these divisions. On one side, General Haftar, now has support from Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Russia. On the other, Dbeibah is backed by Turkey, Qatar, Italy and Algeria. However, the ongoing conflict has also been defined by shifting alliances, illustrated by the fact that Turkish Airlines are now able to fly to Benghazi.
The fighting amongst militias may have ceased for now, but the ongoing political fragmentation across the country must be solved if a central government is to be built and the country reunified. This would involve taking a hard look at the causes of the fragmentation. What are they? Firstly, a Western-led ‘humanitarian intervention,’ that was not properly thought through. Secondly, a failed political transition that allowed foreign powers using mercenaries and financial support, to back different militia groups fighting for power. Thirdly, the collapse of a central government in 2011 which is still being rebuilt to this day. Unless these causal factors are addressed, and the international community engages in sincere diplomatic efforts in Libya, conflict is likely to continue.
Floods, protests, and economic crisis driving militia recruitment
One major economic breakthrough is the appointment of Mohamed Al-Menfi the new central bank governor in August 2024, as many Libyan civilians fear for the safety of their savings. Unfortunately the economic situation in Libya has been on a downfall for the past decade, leading to more youth joining militia groups to make extra money.
The massive floods sparked by Storm Daniel and the dam collapses that wiped out the majority of the coastal city of Derna in September 2023 shone a spotlight on the fragility of Libya’s infrastructure. Any remodelling of infrastructure and the bodies that govern them have largely been on hold due to internal armed conflicts and corruption. Fixing the dams in Derna could have saved thousands of lives. However, the tragedy also led to a rare moment of cooperation between the Eastern and Western governments who worked together to provide aid to civilians.
The meeting of the Libyan Foreign Minister Najla al-Mangoush with the Israeli foreign minister in August 2023 sparked numerous protests throughout 2024. It was rumored that al-Mangoush had set up this meeting to potentially normalize Libyan relations with Israel. This caused a massive uproar, where Libyans took to the streets burning Israeli flags, presenting a deeply rooted solidarity with Palestine. This marked a turning point in the public’s opinion of Dbeibah’s government, and its preoccupation with forming foreign alliances rather than fixing more important issues within Libya such as the economic crisis.
Municipal elections were held in November 2024 where Libyan civilians had the opportunity to vote for municipal councils throughout the country. This marks another significant turning point towards free and fair elections, empowering the Libyan people to have a voice and choose their representatives.
In March 2024 Stephanie Khoury was appointed as the new Deputy Special Representative for Political Affairs in Libya in the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL). This came about after the former envoy Abdoulaye Bathily resigned in April, citing a “lack of political will and good faith” among the political leaders. Koury has suggested a more inclusive approach arguing for a national dialogue that would include citizens. ‘This dialogue will involve broad participation, including political parties, women, youth, cultural groups and community leaders,’ she said in December 2024.
Fourteen years of failed UN mediation processes
Fourteen years of failed UN mediation efforts have also contributed to the absence of a political transition in Libya. As outlined in ICDI’s report ‘Libya: An Assessment of 12 years of International Mediation’ there has been a lack of coherent strategy from one Special Representative of the Secretary-General (SRSF) to the next, with each having a different approach on how to pursue peace, with no overarching and unified strategy. The dialogues organized by the UN lacked inclusivity and were dominated by the victors of the Libyan civil war in 2011. Women and civil society were largely absent. The UN allowed representatives of the Permanent Five to grossly interfere with the mediation to advance their own interests. Today the same issues remain. UN representatives continue to face the same challenges, and have been focused on appeasing groups involved without any solid efforts at initiating a genuine and inclusive dialogue. While some dialogues have taken place, such as those in Paris, Morocco, Geneva, Berlin and Cairo, no real progress has materialized and many Libyans continue to question whether UN diplomacy is working for Libya.
The reality is most of the local actors and militias know that the UN limits its influence and engagement and do not want a solution because they are benefiting economically from the conflict. Greed, dominance, and corruption as recorded by UN experts and Libyan sources as well, poses major challenges to any form of mediation.
There is no quick solution to the situation in Libya, especially given the length and scale of the conflict. One potential alternative is for the Libyans themselves to launch an inclusive Libyan-led national dialogue with all actors involved. However, whether this is possible is still open to debate. There are too many actors involved now, the crisis has gone on for too long and corruption, entrenched military and economic interests, continue to pose major threats to peace. Foreign interference also continues to add fuel to the fire.
UN Security Council deadlock hinders progress in Libya
Why have 10 UN representatives of Libya since 2011 not been able to make any progress in advancing peace? Bathily, similar to previous UN envoys, has noted that the most challenging aspect of the situation in Libya is the leaders themselves who refuse to come to engage constructively. This is a common problem that numerous UN envoys to Libya have faced. Tackling the situation in Libya has become a game of satisfying all actors involved, however, what is lacking are real results. While the role of Libya’s local actors may play a significant role in facilitating change, the reasons for the lack of progress of the UN mediation must be understood, if Libya is to move forward. UN envoys continue to struggle with a diplomatic approach that hasn’t worked, but the UN Security Council (UNSC) has proven to be a hindrance also. Periodic lofty, UN declarations and statements will not lead to a resolution without addressing the alliances amongst the regional and international actors on the ground that are contributing to a proxy war.
The deadlock is due to differing goals within the UN Security Council (UNSC) members, the United States and United Kingdom keep pushing for elections which are not feasible under current conditions in Libya. On the other hand, China and Russia have vested interests in expanding their influence over Africa, with Libya posing a significant economic opportunity. Many are competing for future influence and economic opportunities, which has created internal tensions and contributed to the deadlock within the UNSC.
Other European countries such as Italy, Germany, and France are most concerned about the migrant crisis rather than finding a political solution for Libya. While the focus is on peacemaking, ignoring all of the factors contributed by regional and international actors will not lead to a solution, rather further UN envoy turnover. These realities are yet to be addressed by UN representatives who tend to blame the bad actors in Libya rather than the role of foreign countries: both inside Libya and within the UN Security Council itself.
The recent appointment of Ghanaian government Minister Hannah Tetteh to the position of Special Representative for Libya and Head of UNSMIL, is a victory for Africa, but whether or not her appointment marks a significant shift in UN policy on the ground remains to be seen.
Outlook for peace and elections
Peace cannot happen without pressuring the armed groups to maintain a ceasefire, which was attempted in the 2020 Ceasefire, but did not last long. The key here is understanding that these armed groups (militias, Islamists, the Libyan National Army etc) do not want a solution; they want control and the economic benefits that come with it. In the short term, the future looks grim with no actors who can challenge or check the legitimacy of armed groups. Yet the brief moment of cooperation between the East and West during the devastating floods that wiped away neighborhoods in the city of Derna offers a hopeful image of a united Libya and shows the Libyan people are not as fragmented as it may appear from the outside, especially given that civil society has continued to function while bureaucratic institutions such as the police force have failed.
The one main scenario that has yet to materialize is elections. The Libyan people have not been able to elect their leaders, and they need to be empowered to have a peaceful, collective action. The goal is to have free and fair elections take place in order for a new government to come into the picture. This proxy war has gone on long enough and there are too many outside actors trying to sway the outcome of the elections, let alone maintain control of Libyan territories. The Dbeiba government blocking a transition of power is also not going to produce any real change, since that interim government should have been dissolved after a year. Holding free and fair elections will turn Libya in the right direction. Libyan people deserve a future of reconstruction that will be maintainable for years to come. If this path of corruption and tampering with elections continues, there will be no real progress. Yet the election to succeed requires certain conditions to make it a positive step forward: a creative solution to the armed groups, a ceasefire, a national dialogue which should build consensus around the main goals for Libya’s future including accepting the results of the coming elections.
Haneen Ahmida is a Libyan-American political scientist who has studied at Emmanuel College, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Boston University, and the School of Oriental and African Studies in London. Her research has focused on Arab-American feminism, human rights and international law and humanitarian intervention in Libya. She has researched human rights, public policy, and global governance for International Centre for Dialogue Initiatives and Lawyers for Justice in Libya in London.
