Hamas’s October 7 attack and Israel’s subsequent war on and destruction of the Gaza Strip has had far-reaching implications for the Middle East, including Yemen. In a show of solidarity with Palestinians, the Houthi armed group in Yemen launched an attack on Tel Aviv on June 19, resulting in one death and ten injuries. This attack came in the wake of a series of missile and drone attacks starting from October 2023 on American and international commercial vessels traveling off Yemen’s Red Sea coastline. The Houthi group claims these ships are connected to or supporting Israel.
Gaza and the Houthis
The involvement of the Houthis in Israel’s war on Gaza was unsurprising to Yemenis, though it caught many around the world off guard. The Houthi movement, since its founding in 1994, has consistently advocated for the defense and liberation of Palestine from Israeli occupation. The movement’s slogan, “Allah is the Greatest, Death to America, Death to Israel, A Curse Upon the Jews, Victory to Islam,” reflects their long-standing position against Israel.
After seizing control of Yemen’s capital, Sana’a, in 2014 through a military coup with the support of former president Ali Abdullah Saleh, the Houthis have witnessed the first major conflict in Palestine with the ongoing Gaza war since their rise to power. Since 2014, their military capabilities have grown with assistance from their long-time ally, Iran, which is also a long-time supporter of the Palestinian cause. This has allowed the Houthis to pursue their longstanding ambitions related to Palestine and advance their political aspirations to become a significant regional and international force.
Regional stability
For years, experts have cautioned that Yemen’s instability could threaten international security and economic interests due to its strategic location near the Bab Al-Mandab Strait. These warnings have come to fruition, as the Houthis’ actions are costly for the international community. Their attacks on Red Sea shipping have severely disrupted global trade between Asia and Europe, increasing shipping costs by 284 percent. The attacks have cut Suez Canal transits by more than half, forcing rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope and raising transit costs by about 50 percent, negatively impacting firms in both the European Union and Egypt. This disruption has highlighted the Houthis’ control over a critical chokepoint, effectively challenging maritime norms and functioning as a form of economic sanction.
Political alignments and power dynamics
In Yemen, the Houthis’ military advancement has significantly impacted political alignments and power dynamics. Despite lacking popular political legitimacy, their emergence on the international stage has led to their perception of Yemen’s rulers. This was reinforced by Israel’s retaliatory strikes on June 20 in the Houthi-controlled city of Houdidah.
The Houthi group has leveraged these attacks and its overall military escalation capabilities to strengthen its military and political position. The attacks have elevated the group to an international player, prompting Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to adopt a more cautious approach to avoid regional escalation. In addition to its long-standing alliance with Iran, the group has taken advantage of the current war in Gaza to strengthen its ties with Iraq and Russia.
Regarding Iraq, the Houthis aim to align with the Tehran-backed “Axis of Resistance,” thereby expanding their influence and reach. By strengthening connections with Iraqi militias and political figures, the Houthis gain strategic depth against Saudi Arabia and enhance their regional presence. As for Russia, the cancellation of the arms delivery to Yemen’s Houthis under Saudi and United States’ pressure highlights the Houthis’ intention to engage with international powers beyond the region. These developments reflect the Houthis’ broader regional ambitions beyond Yemen, realigning the balance of power in the Middle East.
Security and regional dynamics
The Houthis’ broader ambitions beyond Yemen became evident during the Gaza conflict and are likely to persist even after it ends. The security dynamics in Yemen have shifted significantly as the Houthi military capabilities pose a threat to international security. By demonstrating their control over shipping routes off Yemen’s coast in the Red Sea, including hijacking and attacking international vessels, the Houthis have established a dominant position in Yemen’s security landscape, surpassing the influence of other Yemeni military factions. Experts believe the Houthis will continue using their military power to pursue strategic objectives, such as seeking international recognition of their government. Houthi military capabilities in particular affect their relationships with regional powers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who can no longer underestimate them.
Western military response is short sighted
The absence of a diplomatic solution by the international community for the Gaza conflict has an echo in Yemen. The international community seemingly does not acknowledge the connection between Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and on Tel Aviv with Israel’s war on Gaza and Houthi group’s solidarity with Palestinians. Rather than pursuing a diplomatic resolution for Gaza, the U.S., the United Kingdom, and the EU have initiated military actions against Houthi targets. Since December, the U.S. has led Operation Prosperity Guardian, conducting airstrikes on Yemen, and in February, the EU launched the Aspides naval operation to protect Red Sea commerce. This focus on military over diplomatic solutions could further destabilize the region, complicating peace efforts in Yemen and Gaza.
The way forward
The Gaza conflict has allowed the Houthis to enhance both their military capabilities and political ambitions, making them a significant player on the regional stage. Without diplomatic and peace efforts in Yemen and Gaza, military interventions against the Houthis will be ineffective.
Policymakers and regional actors should embrace a multifaceted strategy to address the Houthis’ involvement in the Gaza conflict. This ought to begin with prioritizing the root causes, through significant diplomatic efforts to resolve the Gaza situation. Given that Yemen’s stability is crucial for global economic and security interests, the international community must engage in direct negotiations with the Houthis to address their political and security concerns, integrating them into global diplomacy.
Furthermore, a peace process between the Houthis, the Yemeni government, and other Yemeni factions should be supported without interference from regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iran, the U.S., the UK, and the EU. Rather than relying on unsustainable humanitarian aid, efforts should focus on developing long-term economic plans for Yemen that aim to rebuild infrastructure and create job opportunities, thereby reducing dependence on military solutions. As the dust settles on the Gaza conflict, the path forward for Yemen and the broader region hinges on embracing diplomacy over military might.
Afrah Nasser is a non-resident fellow at the Arab Center Washington DC. She is a recipient of the Committee to Protect Journalists’ International Press Freedom Award and formerly worked as a Yemen researcher at Human Rights Watch.
