Yemen’s 2024 unfolded as a pivotal year for regional power dynamics, with the Houthi armed group cementing its role as both a disruptive force and a significant player on the global stage. This development was heavily influenced by actions that began in late 2023. Leveraging their control of northern Yemen, the Houthis weaponized the Red Sea’s strategic shipping lanes, targeting vessels passing the Bab al-Mandab Strait since November 2023. As an expression of solidarity with Palestine in Israel’s war on Gaza, the Houthis’ actions were meant to pressure Israel and its allies to end the war, declaring all ships headed for Israeli ports fair game.
The response from Washington was swift, setting the stage for ongoing tensions in 2024. In December 2023, President Joe Biden rallied a coalition, named Operation Prosperity Guardian — composed of forces from the United States, United Kingdom, Australia, Bahrain, Canada, the Netherlands and other nations — launching military attacks on Houthi military infrastructure inside Yemen, to degrade the group’s capabilities. Yet, instead of retreating, the Houthis doubled down, launching drone strikes on Israeli cities multiple times, signaling their operational capabilities had reached unprecedented levels. Israel’s retaliatory strikes on Yemen’s Hodeidah port in July and September only deepened the cycle of escalation. U.S. and U.K. forces conducted airstrikes targeting Houthi weapons stockpiles, adding to the escalating tensions. Meanwhile, geopolitical opportunism surfaced elsewhere. In June, the United Arab Emirate’s push to lease Aden’s international port to Abu Dhabi Ports Authority sparked an outcry among Yemeni political figures and activists.
Houthis and Iran’s waning influence
By late 2024, the “Axis of Resistance” was in disarray. The assassinations of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, along with the collapse of Assad’s regime delivered a major blow to Iran’s regional influence. For the Houthis in Yemen, Iran’s diminished capacity to support its allies highlights the fragility of their position and poses profound challenges for the group.
Iran’s declining capacity to project power and resources in Yemen could leave the Houthis vulnerable, creating potential power vacuums that might destabilize the already fragile conflict dynamics. While this shift could present an opportunity for de-escalation, particularly if Iran is forced to scale back its support, it might also encourage the Houthis to double down on militaristic posturing or seek alternative alliances, further complicating peace efforts.
In light of recent events, Houthi leaders have focused their rhetoric on external enemies which mirrors Iran’s strategy of deflection and scapegoating, revealing their precarious position. Similarly, just as the Assad regime ignored the demands of its populace, the Houthis continue to dismiss Yemenis’ grievances while focusing on external actors. This approach risks alienating the Yemeni people further and reinforcing the perception that the group prioritizes external agendas over domestic stability.
Yemen’s economic and humanitarian needs in 2025
By 2025, Yemen’s economic and humanitarian crises are projected to worsen, fueled by protracted conflict, economic fragmentation, and regional instability. Approximately 19.5 million people are projected to need aid in 2025, marking a roughly seven percent increase from 2024. Currently, over 17 million Yemenis face food insecurity, including 3.5 million suffering from severe malnutrition. In addition, nearly 18 million lack access to safe drinking water and sanitation, while preventable diseases like cholera, diphtheria, and dengue fever continue to plague the population.
The economy remains in freefall, with Gross Domestic Product shrinking further after a one percent contraction in 2024. Oil export blockades and a depreciating Yemeni Rial have crippled government finances, leaving essential services unfunded and exacerbating the humanitarian crisis. Rising inflation and disrupted supply chains, aggravated by Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping, are pushing the nation to the brink.
Fragile prospects for peace
Despite the 2022 truce between the Houthis and Yemen’s Internationally Recognized Government (IRG) and the announcement of a Roadmap one year ago, no substantial progress has been made toward a lasting peace settlement. In fact, Yemen’s peace prospects remain precarious. Over the past three weeks, UN Special Envoy Hans Grundberg’s outlook on Yemen has taken a sharp turn—from cautious optimism to urgent alarm. Three weeks ago, he outlined a path to peace in 2025, hinging on international unity and a clear ceasefire roadmap. Now, his message, stated yesterday, is grimmer: escalating violence, a collapsing economy, and blatant human rights violations — like Houthi detentions and Red Sea insecurity — are destabilizing Yemen further. The window for diplomacy is closing fast. Grundberg warned that these developments have shrunk the space for mediation and risk derailing progress, urging immediate action to prevent Yemen from sliding further into instability.
This sense of urgency is compounded by broader regional shifts, including the decline of Iran’s influence following Assad’s fall. Previously, the Houthis defined peace as a scenario where they held absolute power, excluding Yemen’s internationally recognized government and other political factions. However, with their primary backer weakened, the Houthis may be forced to reassess their stance. Diminished external support could compel them to lower their demands, engage more seriously in negotiations, and participate in inclusive peace talks, creating a potential opening for progress — if the international community acts decisively.
However, intensified confrontation between the Houthi armed group and Israel might ignite the resumption of Yemen’s civil war 2.0. The Yemeni anti-Houthi camp has been drumming for war with the Houthis since Israel started attacking Yemen in July 2024. For example, Hameed Al-Ahmar, a prominent leader of the Islah political party, stated that recent regional and international developments must be leveraged to ‘end the abhorrent Houthi coup and restore the state.’ He emphasized that the Houthis have repeatedly demonstrated their lack of commitment to peace, having squandered Saudi Arabia’s genuine efforts to reach a peaceful settlement. Al-Ahmar also highlighted growing public outrage in Houthi-controlled areas, describing it as having reached ‘unprecedented levels,’ warning that the Houthis’ reliance on military escalation and repression will only deepen this unrest.
Al-Ahmar’s message underscores a broader sentiment among anti-Houthi factions that the time is ripe to decisively confront the group militarily, a stance that could escalate Yemen’s conflict further in 2025. However, the Houthi group does not appear to fear or care about any of this, even if subjected to heavy strikes by the U.S. and Israel and their consequences. They seem confident that the internal anti-Houthi camp remains fragmented and weak, no longer receiving the same level of military support it once did from the Saudi-led Coalition to restore Yemen’s government’s legitimacy. If the anti-Houthi camp were to receive significant military backing from its former supporters, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, or new external allies, the resumption of Yemen’s civil war would become almost inevitable. Ultimately, one of the gravest threats to Yemen’s peace prospects in 2025 is the looming possibility of a full-scale return to civil war, a scenario that would not only devastate Yemen further but also ripple across regional security and global shipping routes.
International community’s role in facilitating peace in 2025
To facilitate peace in Yemen by next year, the international community should leverage Iran’s waning influence to encourage the Houthis to reconsider their hardline stance and engage in inclusive dialogue. This requires pressuring all parties to engage productively, ensuring the meaningful participation of diverse Yemeni factions, women, youth, and civil society groups in peace talks.
Addressing Yemen’s economic fragility is crucial, including providing urgent aid to stabilize the economy, alleviate food insecurity, and rebuild infrastructure. Concurrently, efforts should focus on reconstructing state institutions to restore services and uphold the rule of law. By prioritizing humanitarian needs, empowering local peace initiatives, and fostering regional cooperation, the international community can create conditions for sustainable peace and stability in Yemen. As much as international involvement is crucial, it must be done without undermining Yemen’s sovereignty, perpetuating the perception that peace is being imposed by foreign powers rather than achieved organically by Yemenis themselves.
Final thoughts
A durable peace agreement could unlock Yemen’s recovery. Without immediate intervention, Yemen faces deepening poverty, displacement, and instability, jeopardizing its future. Yemen’s trajectory in 2024 wasn’t just about conflict—it was a case study of how power vacuums and fragmented authority invite external actors to reshape the rules of engagement. The Houthis’ actions have redefined them as a regional force capable of altering the global shipping landscape but at a profound cost to Yemen’s stability. The country’s future now hinges on whether these competing interests can find equilibrium—or if Yemen will remain a proxy battleground in a broader geopolitical contest.
Afrah Nasser is a non-resident fellow at the Arab Center Washington DC. She is a recipient of the Committee to Protect Journalists’ International Press Freedom Award and formerly worked as a Yemen researcher at Human Rights Watch.
