August has been a month of diplomatic rough and tumble in a year defined by the collapse of civility in international relations. Nowhere has this been more evident than in the negotiations surrounding the United States-Israeli war against Iran, which has been defined by bad faith negotiations, confusion and coercion – punctuated by missiles and attacks. President Donald Trump threatened to bomb Oman, a key mediator, if it “gets in the way” of US talks with Iran, as the 60-day Memorandum of Understanding comes to a close. A cycle of ceasefire, attack, repeat, seems likely.
However, a new defense and security alliance between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan hopes to change this dynamic. The agreement signed last week could mark the beginning of a shift away from US-led diplomatic and security leadership, which has failed to protect allies in the region. The conflict with Iran has shown the limits of US promises of political stability and protection, and regional powers have responded. While the jury is still out on whether this security pact will be a success, and Pakistan will likely have to tread a careful line with its neighbor Iran, the development is symbolic and a first.
Meanwhile, masses of migrants bounded into the waters of Morocco, hoping to make it to the Spanish enclave of Ceuta. As the King of Morocco lauded his achievements in a speech marking the 27th year of his ascension to the throne – including the building of infrastructure, economic development, and stability in the country – the unprecedented attempted exodus of around 80,000 citizens suggests all is not well in the Kingdom. Men, women, the handicapped, children and the elderly were among those desperately trying to flee a country that despite its glamourous façade is failing its people.
The senior leadership of the Moroccan government has remained mute on the mass migration attempt. There has been no national day of mourning for the 150 souls who perished, nor government outrage over allegations of rape of minors in Ceuta or discussions about the rights of migrants in the territory. What’s more puzzling is how an enclave on the Moroccan mainland remains Spanish territory in the 21st century, seventy years after the nation supposedly gained its independence. It is equally puzzling why the Moroccan government has not made any effort to place the Spanish enclaves on the agenda of the United Nations Decolonization Committee (Fourth Committee).
As someone who fled to Spain in a small fishing boat in 1985, after 8 years of imprisonment for pro-democracy activism and continued harassment, I know all too well the feelings of desperation and despair that must have been stirring inside those who attempted to flee. My heart is with them and I am sorry that the change we all hoped for over these past decades hasn’t eventuated.
The attempted exodus to Ceuta again illustrates the consequences of lack of genuine and real reform and inclusive dialogue to address grievances. The government has consistently met peaceful dissent with brute force, as seen during last year’s GenZ protests that saw thousands jailed. The Ceuta incident has been another blow to Moroccan diplomacy, as it has now strained relations with Spain, its most important economic partner. Morocco’s diplomatic relationship with all its neighbours from Mauritania, Tunisia and its long-term rival Algeria along with Spain are becoming more and more conflictual. Morocco’s trumpeted diplomatic strides over Western Sahara, have in fact led nowhere, with no real prospects for resolution of this conflict on the horizon. Sadly, right-wing politicians in Spain and Europe have used the incident to promote their anti-immigration rhetoric, rather than look more closely at Morocco’s failing economic and political model that generates this drive to migrate.
In Lebanon, a fragile ceasefire continues and a disarmament process has failed to get off the ground with Hezbollah, the group expected to disarm, absent from the negotiating table. Meanwhile in Gaza, Israel continues to flout the ceasefire with more than 1000 Palestinians killed since it was agreed upon in October, with Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu rejecting President Trump’s 15-point Peace Plan. The developments in both nations underscore the fact that peace processes are more than MOUs, they must be inclusive, and mediated by genuinely impartial actors and provide for monitoring and verification mechanisms, if they are to endure.
In Sudan, a devastating and neglected war continues to rage, with the African Union recently visiting Sudan to attempt to broker a ceasefire between the two warring parties. Washington has said that it will back “a genuine and inclusive civilian-led dialogue,” as has Abdel Fattah El-Burhan, leader of the Sudanese Armed Forces, one of the warring groups, but it is unclear if and how this will unfold in the midst of ongoing fighting.
Meanwhile in Yemen, the lull that has prevailed since a deal was negotiated directly between the Saudis and Houthis in 2022, has been severely shaken. Houthi and Saudi-backed groups have clashed and the Houthis and Saudis themselves seem poised for battle. In the absence of an inclusive political process and an active and impartial mediation the drums of war are again beating.
Diplomatic proclamations from New York, the Security Council, Geneva and Doha and other capitals have failed to address any of the major conflicts around the world this month. It is clear that real diplomacy needs a reboot and mediators doing the tedious work are properly mandated, resourced and backed, not undermined.
In this edition of Diplomacy Now we feature an article on the shifting negotiating dynamics between the US and Iran, the challenge of sanctions and why Iran might have more leverage than anticipated. From the Maghreb we have articles from Moroccan authors on the recent events in Ceuta and an article from a Spanish journalist on the growing tensions between Algeria and Morocco. Our final article, from an Africa Union and United Nations senior diplomat, explores why Africa should be more invested in the future of the UN and who leads it.
As with every edition the views expressed by contributors are not all necessarily our own. However, ICDI remains committed to the ethos and philosophy that open debate, dialogue, diplomacy, and mediation, rather than armed conflict and war, offer the way forward to resolving any conflict.
Thank you for reading Diplomacy Now and we welcome your feedback at diplomacynow@dialogueinitiatives.org.
Jamal Benomar
Chair of ICDI
Leading Iran and Middle East commentator Sina Toosi takes us through the quagmire that has eventuated from the broken trust between the US and Iran and the challenges it could pose to ending this drawn out conflict.
“The history of US-Iran diplomacy has left Iranian leaders deeply skeptical that American commitments will endure, whether across administrations or even through the course of a single presidency,” Toosi writes.
But Iran has a diplomatic ace that has tipped the balance: “its ability to restrict transit through the Strait of Hormuz.”
Independent Moroccan journalist Ali Anouzla explores the root causes of the recent mass migration in Ceuta and the government’s silence.
“The real lesson is that a country can prevent migration by force, but it cannot prevent the desire to migrate by force. Unless the debate shifts from the question “who is behind the migration?” to the question “what drives young people to risk their lives?”, the crisis will remain liable to repeat itself,” he writes.
“Mass migration is not the disease but one of its symptoms. The disease, at its core, is a crisis of trust, of horizon and of social justice,” he concludes.
Spanish journalist and Maghreb expert Sonia Moreno writes about the causes of the rising tensions between Morocco and Algeria, and now Spain. Part of this tension has been due to Morocco’s growing economic and security ties with Israel.
“The scale of military cooperation [with Israel] has deepened the rupture between Algeria and Morocco,” Moreno argues.
“The alliance between Morocco and Israel has also altered the strategic balance across the Maghreb. Morocco and Algeria are increasingly competing for allies and influence in the region, drawing Mauritania and other Sahel countries into their rivalry and putting pressure on the African Union,” she writes.
Western Sahara has now become a more significant battleground for international influence and recognition.
Moroccan journalist and writer El Houssine Majdoubi Bahida explores the causes of the Ceuta crisis and consequences for Morocco’s relationship with Spain.
“The Ceuta crisis remains an extraordinary turning point in Morocco’s history over the past several decades. It represents the failure of the dream of building a state that embraces all its citizens and offers them the prospect of stability and a decent life,” Majdoubi Bahida writes.
Corruption and a ruling class insensitive to the needs of the poor, are likely causes of the mass migration. But this is unlikely to be the end of this, and uncertainty for Morocco looms.
Former senior United Nations and African Union diplomat Abdul Mohammed explores why the future of the global body and its leadership is of fundamental importance to Africa. Africa should be concerned about attacks on the UN and multilateralism more generally Mohammed argues.
“The weakening – let alone the possible demise – of effective multilateralism constitutes an existential strategic threat to the continent. Africa consequently has reason to be more invested, more vocal and more politically engaged in defending and renewing multilateralism than any other region. Yet that urgency is not sufficiently visible in African diplomacy or in the debate surrounding the selection of the next Secretary-General. This contradiction should concern us,” he writes.
Nelson Mandela
