The long-standing rivalry between Morocco and Algeria has recently seen both countries making strategic use of economic tools, especially in trade and the energy sector, to project power, forge new alliances, and engage in strong-arm tactics against European countries. Essentially, Algeria and Morocco are employing economic statecraft to carve out regional leadership roles for themselves in North and West Africa. The result is competing, yet at times also overlapping, spheres of influence. This ongoing development risks fuelling instability. Indeed, as the rivalry between Morocco and Algeria deepens and assumes new dimensions, two key consequences are likely to emerge. The first is increased tension with European partners, particularly between France and Algeria owing to France’s newfound support for Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara, a stance that not only deepens current frictions but also reactivates long-standing grievances rooted in the colonial past. The second is growing volatility in the Sahel, as Algeria and Morocco each attempt to shift the balance in their favor on the issue of the Western Sahara, over which they have long been at odds.
Building political leverage through energy and trade
Both Algeria and Morocco have taken to using natural resources and commerce as a tool for furthering their strategic ambitions. Algeria is establishing itself as a key player in Europe’s long-term energy security by asserting its position in the energy market of the future, which includes both the production of green hydrogen and the supply of fossil fuels. To do this, it uses energy to forge closer political and economic ties with Italy and Germany—and gain leverage with them. Additionally, Algeria has turned its trade policy and its status as a major importer of food products, particularly cereals, into a form of economic pressure, sending a clear message that access to the Algerian market will increasingly be conditioned on geopolitical alignment.
Morocco’s energy strategy has two primary objectives: to guarantee long-term domestic energy security and to improve its international standing through clean energy exports. Over the past twenty years, Morocco has consistently invested in solar, wind, and hydropower, as well as, more recently, green hydrogen. The country now ranks among Africa’s top five producers of renewable energy. Although not a fossil fuel exporter, Morocco is using renewables to compete in the energy landscape and is capitalizing on its strategic geographic position and economic dynamism to attract investors.
The view from Algeria
The shock caused to the world’s energy markets by the war in Ukraine offered Algeria a golden opportunity to establish itself as one of Europe’s most prominent energy partners. Algiers filled the void left by the natural gas that EU countries had previously purchased from Russia and leveraged this economic boon into political influence. The redrawing of European gas supply lines has positioned Algeria as a strategic energy partner for Europe, allowing it to advance its interests at a critical moment. The disruption of Russian gas supplies in the wake of the Ukraine war and the collapse of Libya’s energy output led Rome to shift its energy policy focus decisively toward Algiers.
Algeria’s economic statecraft incorporates coercive elements in addition to cooperation. Algiers’ willingness to weaponize its energy exports was made clear by the deterioration of its relations with Rabat in 2021 over the Western Sahara dispute. The Maghreb-Europe Gas Pipeline, which had previously shipped Algerian gas to Spain via Morocco, was closed by Algiers that year. The action was both punitive and strategic, depriving Rabat of a portion of its energy supply and substantial transit fees during a period of economic strain caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and worldwide inflation. Algeria signalled its determination to use infrastructure control as a geopolitical tool, thereby compelling Morocco to find alternative energy sources.
Algiers has adopted a similar approach when it comes to the food trade, especially the import of wheat. For example, in 2019, up to 5 million tons of soft wheat, amounting to $1 billion in trade, were imported by Algeria from France, making it one of the latter’s most successful years for wheat export. However, due to France’s growing and open support for Morocco’s plans for the Western Sahara (limited autonomy instead of a referendum on independence), Algeria began reorienting its procurement strategy toward Russian and Eastern European suppliers.
The view from Morocco
Although not historically a major player in the energy market, Morocco has recognized that the evolving geopolitics of energy presents it with new opportunities to assert its influence in North Africa. Seizing what it sees as a “green window of opportunity,” the kingdom has accelerated investments in renewable energy not only to secure its own energy future, but also to position itself as a green energy hub. At the same time, Morocco has sought to leverage its geographic advantage by championing a transcontinental gas pipeline connecting Nigeria to Europe via Moroccan territory, an initiative that has intensified competition with Algeria.
Morocco’s geographic location and electricity grid connections with Spain and Portugal make it an ideal partner for the European Union and facilitate its quest to become a renewable energy hub in the EU’s southern energy neighborhood. An excellent illustration of this effort is Rabat’s green hydrogen roadmap, which was unveiled in 2021. The goal of the plan is to make the country a major supplier of hydrogen to domestic industries, such as fertilizer producers, as well as international markets. Morocco still makes massive use of coal for most of its electricity. In order to transition entirely to renewable alternatives, the country will need to invest heavily in energy generation, storage, and infrastructure upgrades. The success or failure of the green hydrogen strategy will also depend on global demand, competitive pricing, and sustained political will in European capitals.
Moroccan statecraft is not limited to energy. Clamping down on undocumented migrants making their way to Europe through Morocco and attracting major infrastructure investment have both become key negotiating tools, especially with Spain and France. After years of insisting that the future of the Western Sahara should be determined by a popular referendum in the territory itself, Madrid reversed course in 2022 and backed Morocco’s plan for granting the region limited autonomy. The reason for this about-face was Madrid’s desire to secure Rabat’s cooperation in curbing the flow of irregular migrants to the Spanish North African enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla, as well as the Canary Islands, in 2020 and 2021.
Escalating rivalry in a fragmented region
The long-standing rivalry between Algeria and Morocco has entered a new and more antagonistic phase. For one thing, it has spread beyond North Africa and into the more unstable regions of the Sahel and West Africa. Both countries have taken steps to carve out spheres of influence through a combination of diplomacy, economic statecraft, and strategic alliances. And, for another, the rivalry has evolved into a zero-sum game, whereby one country’s gain is perceived as the other’s loss. The move by France and Spain toward endorsing Morocco’s position on the Western Sahara has accelerated this phenomenon by emboldening Rabat and angering Algiers.
The Western Sahara issue lies at the heart of the Algerian-Moroccan rivalry, shaping the strategic calculations and foreign policies of both states. For Morocco, securing international recognition of its sovereignty over the territory is a cornerstone of its national agenda and regional diplomacy. Algeria, in contrast, views support for the separatist Sahrawi cause as a matter of principle tied to anti-colonial solidarity and regional balance. This fundamental disagreement has fueled decades of mistrust and competition, transforming the Western Sahara into both a symbolic and a strategic battleground. As international positions shift and the UN-led peace process remains stalled, the issue continues to feed escalating tensions between the two neighbors.
Additionally, a new competitive frontier has emerged in the Sahel as a result of Moroccan-Algerian differences. Morocco and Algeria are both attempting to take advantage of each other’s failures. As Algiers’ power declines, Rabat is gaining ground. However, this is not the end of the game and the future remains very uncertain. Particularly in areas such as the Sahel, where institutions are weak, borders are porous, and alliances are brittle, Morocco and Algeria’s overlapping spheres of influence raise the possibility of conflict.
Algeria is actively attempting to reshape regional alliances in North Africa by advocating for a new Maghreb bloc that does not include Morocco. For its part, Morocco has sought to expand its influence in West Africa and the Sahel through long-term investments, economic diplomacy, and pragmatic engagement, a strategy exemplified by King Mohammed VI’s 2023 announcement of Rabat’s Atlantic Initiative.
Rivalry between Morocco and Algeria intensifies
The rivalry between Morocco and Algeria is expanding in scope, with both countries doubling down on competing visions for regional leadership. Morocco has harnessed its growing stature as a trade and energy hub to great effect, shifting international dynamics in its favor. The mounting endorsements of its autonomy plan for Western Sahara by major Western powers, including the United Kingdom, United States, France, and Spain, are not merely diplomatic victories; they mark a strategic realignment of European interests with Rabat’s stances. This shift has eroded Europe’s historical neutrality and redefined the parameters of international engagement with the Western Sahara conflict.
Algeria, by contrast, is grappling with a receding diplomatic horizon. The country’s regional reorientation, most notably its attempt to forge a new Maghreb framework with Libya and Tunisia, marks a pivot toward self-exclusion from, rather than integration into, existing politico-economic structures. Yet these efforts have delivered mixed results. In the Sahel, where Algeria once exercised considerable influence, its position has weakened. Tensions with Mali and Niger have deepened, further unsettling Algeria’s strategic environment. Looking ahead, the prospects for de-escalation remain dim.
The Western Sahara dispute continues to serve as the primary fault line between Morocco and Algeria, with little space for compromise and growing international momentum behind Rabat’s proposal of limited autonomy for the territory. At the same time, competing ambitions in the Sahel, and its member states’ diverging alliances with external powers, are more likely to fuel confrontation than foster cooperation. For international partners, any move in the future that favors one side in the Morocco-Algeria dispute risks disrupting the fragile balance of power between the two, with potentially destabilizing consequences for the region. Navigating this volatile geopolitical landscape will require strategic caution and nuanced diplomacy.
Hamza Meddeb is a research fellow at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, where he co-leads the Political Economy Program. His research focuses on the political economy of Tunisia and North Africa, the politics of illicit transnational flows, governance, and corruption, as well as the development-security nexus. This article was originally published by the Carnegie Middle East Center.
