In August 2021, after Algeria announced it was severing diplomatic ties with Morocco, relations between the two countries have moved from a chronic chill to a freeze. Since then, many events and incidents have followed in succession, leading to a paroxysm of tension between the two neighbors – a situation that is taking the region toward an unknown fate. The arms race the two countries are pursuing, coupled with the spread of hate speech in certain media outlets and on social media networks, aiming to sow discord between the Algerian and Moroccan peoples, has increased the possibility that a military clash will occur in the future if the crisis is not contained. These escalating tensions are also undermining stability and the foundations of peace in the Maghreb region.
From non-rapprochement to open hostility
Moroccan-Algerian relations over the course of six decades have been characterized more by estrangement than by communication. Most of the time, a situation of “non-hostility” and “non-rapprochement” has prevailed and has not permitted the achievement of the full potential of neighborly relations. However, it has kept the level of tension between the two countries low and has prevented the repetition of a direct or quasi-direct military confrontation, as happened in the 1960s and 1970s. But the Moroccan regime’s normalization with Israel and its entry into security and military agreements with that country, has constituted a dangerous development that has inflamed the relationship between the two countries.
Irrespective of the reasons that were presented to justify this escalation between the two neighbors and the rebuttals advanced, it is clear that the escalating tension marks a new chapter in an old crisis between the two countries, where the most likely scenarios will have unfavorable outcomes. At the present time the best outcome may be to contain the existing tensions, including by reducing the level of inflammatory and hostile speech emanating from numerous quarters in the two neighboring countries, with a view to preparing the conditions for a new détente leading to reconciliation.
It is also clear that the dream of building the Maghreb Union is now farther away than at any time in the past. It is impossible to imagine any progress on this strategic plan, established by the pioneers of the battles for liberation and independence in the Maghreb countries, without repairing the relationship between the two demographic, economic, and political heavyweights of the region.
The fact is that the complex nature of Moroccan-Algerian relations has remained the principal obstacle to building the Maghreb Union. The headlines on the political crisis between these two countries have been varied, beginning with the complicated history between them, passing through the competition over regional leadership, and arriving at keeping the borders closed for a quarter century in what resembles collective punishment of the citizens who live on the two sides of the border.
Western Sahara is at the heart of the Moroccan-Algerian conflict
However, the most prominent headline poisoning Moroccan-Algerian relations has been and remains the Western Sahara issue. The parties failed to solve this issue within the Maghreb family, with it instead being referred to the United Nations to remain in its corridors for more than four decades without a solution. Today this issue remains the main axis of contention between the two countries and the most important obstacle to completion of the Maghreb Project, especially in the shadow of the parties’ preference to focus on what divides them instead of what brings them together.
The remaining Maghreb countries track the conditional state that the two major brothers cause for the project of building the Maghreb Union with a mixture of frustration and impotence. Most of the time, the other three Maghreb states –- Tunisia, Libya, and Mauritania – have chosen to distance themselves as much as possible from the two countries’ disputes and yielded to the conviction that they are not able to move the stagnant waters between them. Besides that, these countries have entered a vortex of difficult internal problems in the last decade, especially Libya, which is feeling out a rough path toward emerging from the civil war, and Tunisia, which is suffering from closure of the parenthesis of a democratic transformation.
Causes for hope within the dark
Despite the dark image of the Maghreb, it is not devoid of points of light. The overwhelming majority of the region’s people have not abandoned their grandfathers’ and fathers’ dream of uniting the Maghreb. Also, the chronic political differences have remained limited to the regimes and political leaderships to a large extent and have not affected the general population in both countries (despite the appearance of dangerous indicators recently on the growth of hate speech and its spread across media outlets and social media platforms).
In addition to the cultural and psychological elements that make the Maghreb unity project easy for the peoples to make their own, many political, economic, and social challenges have imposed themselves on the region and made this Union a vital necessity, not just a sign of fidelity to the generations of resistance and independence. The Sahel region, which encloses the region on the south, has become an arena for all destabilizing activities, including terrorism, arms smuggling, human trafficking, illegal immigration, etc. Libya has become an arena for competing foreign agendas and interests in the absence of any Maghreb coordination. Also, the economic constraints that individual Maghreb states face, like unemployment, food, water, and energy security, the competition of regional blocs, the decline in currency values, and the erosion of citizens’ purchasing power, can be confronted in a better way collectively, given the possibilities that these states can reap from developing their economic partnership.
Reopening the file on the Maghreb Union
The Maghreb countries have lost countless opportunities to obtain the maximum benefit from the complementary nature of their economies. Indeed, they have squandered years and riches that belong to the Maghreb generations and not to the politicians, who are unable to adopt a logic of reconciliation and leave the vicious cycle of conflict. Until today, the Maghreb region remains the least integrated geographic region in the world. It suffices to look at the economic, political, and social achievements of the geographic groupings belonging to the African Union to see the extent of underdevelopment and the enormity of waste in the Maghreb region.
In light of the above situation, the International Center for Dialogue Initiatives (ICDI) is opening the file of the Maghreb Union, considering it a possible framework for discussing controversial issues, thinking about how to solve current crises, and preventing future conflicts. The Center will try to break the wall of silence behind which the silent majority that supports the Maghreb Union hides in the shadow of the oppression of the loud voice of supporters of separation.
In this regard, the Center will offer a platform for the establishment of a committee that will specialize in positive reflection regarding the common Maghreb project. Its purpose will be to identify the obstacles that prevent its completion, propose solutions to existing problems, launch initiatives to mend the rift, and publish policy studies and documents that will help in understanding the Maghreb dilemma. This committee will consist of Maghreb personalities who have knowledge and experience and who enjoy intellectual independence. The committee will define its program, method of work, agenda, and meeting dates by consensus of its members.
