Pakistan has emerged as a key stakeholder and one of the principal mediators in the conflict between the United States and Iran. The involvement of Pakistan in the negotiations, alongside Turkey and Egypt, has been critical in terms of providing both sides with trusted channels of communication. It is worth noting, that although Pakistan did not have any significant leverage with the hostile parties involved – Iran and the United States – it has managed to keep the negotiation process intact and its leadership primarily the country’s Chief of Defence Forces, Field Marshal Asim Munir has used his personal rapport with President Donald J. Trump and his administration to move this ball forward on negotiations. In the last three months, Munir has also consistently engaged with Iran’s political and military elites and has been the only foreign dignitary to travel now two times to Tehran to meet with key decision makers. These developments have not only boosted Pakistan’s global repute but have now firmly intertwined it within the regional security dynamics of the Middle East. This piece will trace how Pakistan’s foreign policy and diplomatic ties have evolved with all major stakeholders over a period of time and what factors have pushed it into the spot of a regional mediator.
From passive player to mediator in a key Middle Eastern conflict
Traditionally, Pakistan has been a relatively passive player in Middle Eastern conflicts. In case of the Arab-Israeli conflict it fully supported the Arab and afterwards Palestinian cause. Nonetheless, this support was mainly diplomatic and other than Pakistani pilots’ involvement during the 1973 Arab-Israeli War, the country’s military footprint remained limited. Pakistan also maintained a neutral stance during the Iran-Iraq war even though the country has less than cordial ties with the late Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein and his government. Furthermore it was also not involved in any diplomatic initiative to end that war, despite its relative proximity. Perhaps this was owing to a greater focus on the situation in Afghanistan and an understanding in the ruling quarters that Pakistan’s interests are better served by focusing on its own immediate neighborhood rather than playing a greater role in the politics of the broader Muslim world.
Since the overthrow of the Iranian Shah, Reza Shah Pahlavi, and the creation of the Islamic Republic after the revolution in 1979, Pakistan has unequivocally supported the central and leading role of Saudi Arabia in the region. The country has repeatedly deployed its troops in the Kingdom and remains one of its closest strategic partners. Yet, there have been moments when Pakistan’s internal politics and its decision makers’ interpretation of national interest have gone against the tide of the bilateral partnership. Pakistan’s refusal to join Saudi Arabia’s military intervention in Yemen in 2015 is a notable example. Similarly, Pakistan has also maintained cordial relationships with all other Arab Gulf States and its elites maintain inter-personal ties with the royal families of all of these Gulf States. However, in the last ten years, the country has lost considerable influence to India, partially owing to the nation’s rising economic clout and the fact that it has become one of the main trading partners of the Arab Gulf States. Pakistan also enjoys long standing cordial ties with Turkey and recently the bilateral defence cooperation has reached new heights.
Pakistan and Iran’s complex diplomatic history
On the other side of the Gulf waterway and alongside its south-west border, Pakistan developed a strategic partnership with Iran under the rule of Reza Shah Pahlavi. As both countries were politically allied with the West, their political alignment further strengthened and Iran emerged as a key supporter of Pakistan during its two wars with India. The relationship took a different turn after the1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran which led to the politicization of religion in Iran. As Pakistan pursued its very own and different path of Islamization, the bilateral relationship fractured. The sectarian violence of the 1990s, diverging viewpoints over Afghanistan and afterwards issues related to border security and respective insurgencies in Balochistan created tensions in the bilateral relationship. In the last ten years, Pakistan’s security establishment has attempted to initiate a dialogue with Iran’s security circles particularly the Revolutionary Guard. However, this initiative has been significantly affected by the elimination of Iran’s security elite in the current conflict and one with Israel last year.
On the international front, Pakistan has adopted a multi-pronged outlook and although it remains a close ally of China and a key node of its Belt Road Initiative, its civilian and military elites continue to maintain a working relationship with the United States and other Western capitals. The relationship did take a nose dive under the Biden Administration which remained reluctant to engage with the Imran Khan led Pakistan. After the removal of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, the relationship between Pakistan and the US considerably improved. However the relationship took a different orientation only under the Trump administration. Pakistan’s current hybrid regime also perfectly read the modus operandi of the Trump administration. It has become clear that the second Trump administration, much like the first one, does not function through the office bearers in the State Department but instead through a group of close advisors and associates of the President who have been given key responsibilities. On the political front, Pakistan has credited President Trump for stopping the war with India and also nominated him for a Nobel Peace Prize. Most notably, Pakistan’s Chief of Defence Forces managed to develop a personal connection with President Trump. President Trump has publicly praised the Pakistani Military Chief and after his first meeting with Field Marshal Munir at the White House, he remarked that Pakistanis know Iran very well, better than most.
Pakistan’s involvement could signal greater diplomatic engagement
Against this backdrop, Pakistan’s prominent role in mediating the Iran-US conflict can be considered rather natural owing to its geography and connections both with the Arab Gulf States and broader Middle East and also Iran. Yet it can be argued that the current diplomatic activism from Pakistan and its greater involvement in Middle Eastern security dynamics is rather new and a policy which is clearly the brain child of Pakistan’s Military Chief. It appears that Pakistan has decided to end its long-standing cautious policy vis-à-vis Middle Eastern politics and security and has embarked upon a rather ambitious approach of pitching itself as a contributor towards regional peace and security.
A key plank of Pakistan’s diplomatic campaign has been to establish a personal rapport with Iranian leadership and in particular the current security elite. In this regard, Pakistan’s Army Chief remains the most critical actor. Another critical actor has been Pakistan’s Interior Minister who appears to have taken over the Iran file from the Foreign Minister and is now handling all the critical messaging between the two sides. Similarly, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif maintains cordial relationships with Saudi and Turkish elites and has been involved in the regional shuttle diplomacy. Pakistan understands that its involvement as a mediator has put it in the global spotlight. This has a positive affect on the image of the country which has often remained in the news due to issues like violence and terrorism. The Iran mediation has highlighted its power coefficient as a formidable middle power in the region and one that is critical for peace in the middle east or broader west asia, a term used for the region in South Asia.
Maintaining a special strategic relationship with Saudi Arabia, continuing close and personalized engagement with Iranian decision makers and working closely alongside the Trump administration remain the key planks of this approach. On one hand, Pakistan has signaled to Iran attacks against Saudi energy infrastructure and military installations will be a red line. On the other hand, Pakistan has tried to develop leverage with Iran by providing a secure air corridor to its negotiators as they travelled to Pakistan. The nation also provided a safe location for negotiations and Iranian leaders, as it is unlikely Israel will attack a nuclear power. It has simultaneously been coordinating its diplomacy with Turkey and Egypt. Both of these countries have remained involved in this regional effort to bring US and Iran onto table and alongside Saudi Arabia, the four nations are also emerging as a new political block in the region. It also appears that for now the US remains convinced that Islamabad is perhaps the best regional channel to continue negotiations with Iran and eventually an agreement through this route may become possible.
The renewal of conflict between US and Iran may compel Pakistan to take a side putting it in a considerably difficult position and tarnishing its credentials of a mediator. The recent US strikes against Iranian targets and Iran’s retaliation have again raised questions regarding the effectiveness of the Islamabad channel and if Pakistani decision makers have significant rapport with both US and Iranian power circles to contain fallout from any such episode in future. Perhaps, Islamabad understands that none of the actors involved want a restart of hostilities and neither can commit to a long term kinetic engagement as it will be disastrous for regional and global economies. It can be argued that Pakistan’s position as a central player in this mediation process will remain secure till the personal relationship between President Trump and Pakistani Military Chief Field Marshall Munir is intact and buoyant. It is also interesting that success of Pakistan’s peace making exercise will also benefit its arch rival India to a degree whose energy supplies has been disrupted due to the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz.
For the moment, Pakistan remains a positive example of a nation from the Global South, taking initiative in facilitating a major diplomatic negotiation – where institutions like the European Union and the United Nations, have failed.
Umer Karim is an associate fellow at the King Faisal Centre for Research and Islamic Studies and a former Visiting Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, London. He is also a doctoral researcher in the Department of Political Science and International Studies at the University of Birmingham. His academic research focuses on Saudi foreign policy and politics, in particular the Saudi regional policy outlook and the broader geopolitics of the Middle East. He is the author of the book, Regional Security in South Asia and Gulf.
