In the midst of the worsening carnage in Gaza, one of the most contentious questions is how it will be governed and rebuilt in the aftermath of Israel’s genocidal war. Who will run Gaza and who will oversee its reconstruction? What will happen to the 2.2 million people who have lost their homes and means of survival? Will there be an international presence? All the “day after” proposals, at this point, seem vague and unclear as is the outcome of this conflict. I will explore what we know so far about the different scenarios set forth by key diplomatic players and military partners: Israel, and its military ally the United States, Arab parties and the Palestinians, or those who claim to represent them politically.
The Israeli vision of post-war Gaza
Israel is yet to set forth a concrete post-war proposal, however, we can draw out the main ideas from speeches by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his close political aides and allies.
Israeli political and military leaders have made it clear that they wish to see Hamas ousted from leadership, and that it will no longer pose a threat to Israel. The population of Gaza will be reduced, with certain areas annexed by Israel or made into buffer zones, particularly the north of the strip. Borders will be controlled by the Israeli Defense Force and the Rafah crossing will either be closed permanently or administered jointly by Israel and Egypt or other collaborating Arab security forces. Israel will be part of the governing administration and have veto power regarding reconstruction , employment and foreign presence.
Prime Minister Netanyahu said, during his last meeting with US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, on October 22, 2024, the war is “not over” and pledged that Israeli forces would operate in Gaza for “years to come,” if necessary. With minimal diplomatic pressure from the US, Israel appears determined to continue with its military onslaught in Gaza. However, it may scale down its attacks on Lebanon considering the mounting troop casualties and loss of equipment in addition to the ongoing attacks on Israeli towns and settlements in the north which led to the evacuation of thousands of residents to safer areas.
The United States
The United States shares many of Israel’s ideas on how a post-conflict Gaza ought to be governed, including the end of Hamas’ rule in the strip. U.S. officials have repeatedly expressed a preference for a reformed Palestinian Authority to govern Gaza, seeing it as a step towards a vaguely undefined goal of a two-state resolution that would end the conflict.
US State Department Deputy Spokesperson Vedant Patel told reporters in Washington “we want to see governance in Gaza that is unified with the West under what we hope is a revitalized Palestinian Authority.” In addition, he said, “There can be no long-term displacement of Palestinians from Gaza. We don’t want to see territorial reduction in Gaza,” he stated.
Arab Perspectives
Arab regimes, in general, also agree that Hamas should no longer govern Gaza and if it were to continue to be present in Gaza it would be in the form of a political group, rather than an armed militant group. According to the recently published book of Bob Woodward, titled War, Arab leaders of Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, all expressed their desire to see Hamas defeated.
However, the UAE, is the only country who has dared to set forth a detailed proposal for the “day after.” Its plan weaves together what the Israelis are insisting upon and what the US appears to be willing to accept.
The plan proposes providing humanitarian assistance and rebuilding Gaza, establishing law and order, laying the foundation for governance, and paving the way for the reunification of Gaza and the West Bank under a single, legitimate Palestinian Authority. Who will be the main overseer of this remains unclear.
The Palestinian Authority must undergo reforms and demonstrate transparency and accountability to restore credibility and trust among the Palestinian people and international partners. A new prime minister will be appointed and a Gaza committee will be established by presidential decree. The plan is seen as a step toward a two-state solution.
There will be deployment of a temporary international mission, upon the formal request of the Palestinian Authority to replace the Israeli military presence in Gaza. The temporary international mission may include personnel from Arab countries, including military contractors, and will oversee stabilization and law enforcement in Gaza. Most significantly, Palestinians will play no direct role in security at the outset.
A steering committee composed of the UAE, the US and other regional actors will oversee the implementation of the plan, ensure progress, and coordinate international funding. This body will monitor PA reforms, reconstruction efforts, and security developments. There will also be a Gaza Committee composed of Palestinians vetted by the Steering Committee and Israel. This Committee will be responsible for the day-to-day administration of Gaza, the rehabilitation of the economy, social services, and state institutions, and will gradually build the PA’s presence in Gaza. Staff and personnel will include former PA civil servants, as well as former civil servants working under Hamas, provided they are vetted by the Steering Committee members and Israel.
The plan does not seek to reach a new agreement with Israel, but will ensure compliance with existing security and economic arrangements (e.g., the Paris Protocol), Israeli security concerns will be addressed without the need for renegotiation.
In terms of the reconstruction of Gaza, the Palestinian Authority will assume responsibility for rebuilding Gaza, with financial support from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other international donors. Efforts will focus on rebuilding infrastructure, restoring services, and re-establishing PA institutions. There will also be a dialogue between Fatah and Hamas to achieve consensus that will ensure Hamas’s acceptance of the committee and the international mission.
This plan was rejected outright by the PA, as it reduces its role to a toothless entity operating under Israel and possibly the UAE and US. I personally believe the UAE is playing a dangerous role attempting to market a bad plan for Palestinians under an Arab banner, though the ideas were generated by Israel and the US.
Palestinian Authority
The most elaborate plan issued by the PA was outlined in an article by Palestinian Prime Minister, Mohammad Mustafa, published on September 12, 2024 in The Washington Post. “With a permanent cease-fire, the Palestinian government stands ready to resume responsibility for the Gaza Strip, leading efforts to fully integrate governance across both it and the West Bank. This integration is essential not only for effective relief, recovery and reconstruction in Gaza, but also as a step toward the broader goal of achieving a permanent political agreement in line with international law and a two-state solution.
He divided the plan into five stages:
- Relief and early recovery
- Reconstruction and long-term recovery
- Security, rule of law and border control
- Integration of institutions and civil service
- Restoring local government functions
It should be noted that the PA largely lacks credibility among Palestinians. In both Gaza and the West Bank it is seen as a corrupt entity surviving through external pipelines that include security coordination and collaboration with Israel.
Leaders of Hamas have made it clear that post-war Gaza must be led by Palestinians without the interference of any external forces. Hamas will likely accept a national unity government that is made of technocrats or representative of Palestinian political parties. But Hamas may try to undermine any arrangement in which it is politically excluded.
Russia and China
Both Russia and China have been vocal in demanding immediate ceasefire in Gaza and now in Lebanon. They have offered the Palestinians humanitarian aid, assistance with the return of displaced people and reconstruction and have said that the future of Gaza and the West Bank should lie in the hands Palestinians, yet their trade and security relations with Israel continue, with China continuing to buy Israeli arms, and for Russia, the ongoing conflict in Gaza takes the focus off its own war in Ukraine.
While many ideas have been proposed regarding “day after,” with the war worsening, it is unlikely that they will be implemented any time soon. All will depend on the outcome of the conflict. Decisive victory by one party may end up in dictating the terms, but if there is no clear-cut winner, there could be other scenarios. What victory might look like for Israel remains unclear, as its military continues to kill civilians and reduce Gaza to rubble.
Abdelhamid Siyam is a Palestinian journalist and academic who reports from the UN for the Arabic daily Alquds Alarabi.
