Hopes for a speedy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine and an end to the conflict are rapidly fading with recent devastating attacks by both countries. Meanwhile in Europe, the EU is marching on with its plans to increase its defence budget and cut back on foreign aid. Increased military spending in Europe in the context of rising tensions with Russia is now firmly on the agenda, but diplomatic initiatives are notably absent. With chaotic trade wars now taking place between the US and China, the world looks as though it is on the brink of a new Cold War. Nevertheless, there is still hope that US engagement with Iran and Ukraine could hopefully yield some positive developments.
After 20 months of carnage in Gaza there is still no prospect of a ceasefire, let alone an end to the conflict. As the United States cast its fifth veto on a Security Council resolution calling for an “immediate, unconditional and permanent ceasefire” in Gaza – the only country in the 15-member council to do so – images of starving Palestinian babies have been causing outrage throughout the world. The failure of the UN to act decisively on the crisis and its archaic architecture which allows permanent five members to hold back decisive action in times of catastrophe, is being drawn into sharp view.
In Geneva and New York, the UN is in a state of panic in the face of US funding cuts, with Secretary-General António Guterres ordering the slashing of 20 percent of the budgets of all UN departments. Insiders are concerned that these cuts are being made without a strategic review to determine which programs are still relevant, which are outdated and should be discontinued and where the UN ought best focus its resources instead of spreading itself too thin. Ironically, these cuts have been proposed just a year after the UN expanded its already bloated secretariat. The fact that the UN has failed to play a significant role in global peace and security in recent years is undeniable, however, it remains unclear what will remain of the global institution in the aftermath of the upheaval. Will the UN recreate itself and rise up to the challenge in a world that is turning more toward conflict and war, or will it continue to fade into irrelevance?
While many in the UN are hoping that the EU will fill the gap in UN funding, increased European military spending and the scaling back of foreign aid suggests this is unlikely.
In the midst of all of this division the International Center for Dialogue Initiatives (ICDI) is launching an initiative to foster greater dialogue among civil society leaders of the five Maghreb countries: Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Libya and Mauritania. In the face of unprecedented political tensions between Algeria and Morocco, we are launching an initiative that draws inspiration from the concept of the Common Maghreb Union that was conceived of in the aftermath of independence but never materialized. The Center will host dialogues with civil society leaders across the Maghreb with the aim of developing ideas and strategies for resolving current crises, and preventing further escalations.
In this edition we feature articles on the prospects for peace in Yemen in the face of the recent deal between the Houthis and President Trump, the escalation of tensions between India and Pakistan, and an article that explores the disbanding of the Kurdish PKK and the prospects for peace between Turkey and its Kurdish minority. We will conclude the edition with a piece on ICDI’s Common Maghreb Project and an article by a highly regarded, and one of the few remaining independent journalists in Morocco, on the recent escalation between Algeria and Morocco and the future of the dream of the Maghreb Union. (For more context on this please see the 3rd edition of Diplomacy Now – A Divided Maghreb for more on this).
As with every edition the views expressed by these authors are not all necessarily our own. However, ICDI remains committed to the ethos and philosophy that open debate, dialogue, diplomacy, and mediation, rather than armed conflict and war, offer the way forward to resolving any conflict.
Thank you for reading Diplomacy Now and we welcome your feedback at diplomacynow@dialogueinitiatives.org.
Jamal Benomar
Chair of ICD
Yemeni researcher Maysaa Shuja Al-Deen explores the recent deal between President Trump and the Houthis and why Yemen is still yet to achieve peace after a decade of war.
“The recent deal between the United States President Donald Trump and the Houthis marks a significant turning point in Yemen’s decade-long conflict, as it introduced a new approach to negotiation and deal-making in the country,” she writes.
“Yemen’s deep-rooted crisis stems from decades of short-sighted policies and an overreliance on security-focused approaches. What Yemen truly needs is a comprehensive political and economic strategy that can deliver more constructive and lasting results,” she concludes.
Academic Farah Jan writes about the recent escalation between India and Pakistan and the changing diplomatic dynamics between both countries and that the May ceasefire offers “limited immediate hope for lasting peace.”
“Unlike previous confrontations, the current tensions emerge from a fundamentally altered strategic landscape. Both nations grapple with domestic constraints that severely limit diplomatic flexibility — India’s rising nationalist sentiment amid electoral pressures has narrowed the government’s room for compromise, while Pakistan’s civilian leadership struggles against military influence and severe economic instability that restricts meaningful diplomatic initiatives,” she writes.
“The international community should pursue incremental confidence-building measures, sustained engagement, and realistic expectations, aiming to manage rather than resolve fundamental disagreements,” she suggests.
Professor Güneş Murat Tezcür explores what the Partiya Karkerên Kurdistan or PKK’s recent announcement of its dissolution means for the Kurdish question in Turkey.
“The May 12 announcement may signal only a temporary reprieve in the Kurdish question in Turkey,” he writes. “Many Kurds in Turkey aspire to greater rights and recognition, aspirations made more tangible by examples of Kurdish autonomy just across the country’s southern borders. If the dissolution of the PKK does not open space for meaningful political inclusion and enhanced rights for the Kurdish minority, there seem to be few guardrails to prevent another cycle of instability.”
ICDI reopens the file on the Maghreb Union and sets out its project for reviving dialogue between civil society leaders in the five Maghreb countries. (We will provide more information on this in coming editions).
“The Center will offer a platform for the establishment of a committee that will specialize in positive dialogue regarding the common Maghreb project. Its purpose will be to identify the obstacles that prevent its completion, propose solutions to existing problems, launch initiatives to mend the rift, and publish policy studies and documents that will help in understanding the Maghreb dilemma. This committee will consist of Maghreb personalities who have knowledge and experience and who enjoy intellectual independence. The committee will define its program, method of work, agenda, and meeting dates by consensus of its members.”
Moroccan journalist Ali Anzoula explores whether the Arab Maghreb Union dream is still possible and argues that the absence of democracy and political will amongst the five Maghreb states is why the project has not been realized.
“Reviving the Arab Maghreb dream begins with drawing up a roadmap capable of overcoming the obstructive historical legacy and rebuilding trust and integration on new, realistic, and effective foundations,” he writes, adding that to achieve this “Informal dialogues [must be launched] among the independent cultural, economic, political, and media elites from the different Maghreb countries,” along with the creation of “cultural, academic, and artistic exchange programs that will encourage innovation and overcome all the legal and bureaucratic obstacles that shackle youthful energies in these states to build new bridges of trust among the rising generations based on shared values and a social history that brings together the peoples of the region.”
Nelson Mandela
