It has been a grim year for global diplomacy – and it is far from over. The world and its leaders appear to have forgotten the harsh lessons of World War II, a conflict that saw millions of civilians murdered by militaries and nuclear weapons.
As survivors of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki called for an end to nuclear weapons on the 80th anniversary of the devastating attack, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty hangs in jeopardy in the aftermath of the ‘12-day War’ during which two states with nuclear weapons – the United States and Israel – attacked Iran, a state without them. The race to obtain weapons that can obliterate cities, and their civilian populations continues, and there seems to be little political will among powerful world leaders to end the madness.
Meanwhile, images of skeletal children and reports of Gazans being killed while seeking scraps of food have caused outrage. UN experts who have for more than a year warned that Israel was orchestrating a starvation campaign, are now being taken more seriously. Countries that have been hesitant to criticize Israel, are finally hitting out at Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, albeit only verbally, and are now supporting a “two-state solution.”
The UN hosted an international conference on a two-state solution late last month – with Israel and the United States not in attendance. Many states and officials have made proclamations about the urgency of ending the war, but words won’t feed starving children. Perhaps the greatest travesty is the fact that powerful states from the global north are yet to sanction Israel politically or economically in the face of such cruelty. Many believe President Trump could end the war and there are signs of a changing tide of opinion amongst his political allies and support base. With President Trump acknowledging Gazans are starving, is there cause for hope or will it be too late?
In Syria, plans to hold the first parliamentary elections since the removal of Bashar al-Assad are underway. Without an electoral framework in place, or a constitution and violence still rife, there is skepticism about how this will evolve. We are following the situation closely and will cover developments in an upcoming edition.
ICDI recently launched its Common Maghreb Project – a project designed to draw together members of civil society from across the Maghreb countries, to discuss the most significant issues facing the region and to foster dialogue and unity, against the trend of competition and division that our leaders have encouraged. We have received positive feedback from members of civil society within Maghreb countries and the diaspora and will continue to feature articles on the Maghreb in upcoming editions of Diplomacy Now.
In this edition of Diplomacy Now we feature an article on ICDI’s initiative and the possibilities for regional dialogue among civil society leaders that has been opened up by the internet and technology and an interview with me on the impasse in the Western Sahara conflict for the acclaimed French investigative online newspaper Mediapart. We also feature a piece on the aftermath of the attack on Iran, and its implications for relations between Iran and the West – an issue we also explored in our latest podcast for ICDI Dialogues. There is also an article on the rising role of Gulf states in conflict mediation, particularly in Gaza and on the current state of the conflict and mediation efforts in Sudan.
As with every edition the views expressed by these authors are not all necessarily our own. However, ICDI remains committed to the ethos and philosophy that open debate, dialogue, diplomacy, and mediation, rather than armed conflict and war, offer the way forward to resolving any conflict.
Thank you for reading Diplomacy Now and we welcome your feedback at diplomacynow@dialogueinitiatives.org.
Jamal Benomar
Chair of ICD
Dr. Roxane Farmanfarmaian explores the history of Western-led nuclear diplomacy in Iran and its missteps and inconsistencies. With hints at a new round of nuclear negotiations, the West and the US need to develop a new strategy if they are to stop Iran from becoming the 10th nuclear power, she argues.
“Most critical to the equation will be US President Donald Trump’s next steps and his ability to shift from credible threats to credible assurances. Press reports in both Iran and the US hint another round of nuclear negotiations may be forthcoming, but Iran has made talks conditional on security guarantees that ensure neither Israel nor the US will attack Iran if negotiations go forward,” Farmanfarmaian writes.
“[U]nless Trump can shift gears to shore up trust, and offer credible assurances that soft, rather than hard power is central to the US strategic plan to incentivise Iran to denuclearise, the pressure on Iran could hasten its decision to pursue a weapon. It has the technical capacity, and the hidden stockpile, as Israel rattles its sabres for another round of war. And if Iran takes that step, the West will be complicit in pushing a 10th nation toward nuclear armament rather than non-proliferation,” she writes.
Sudanese scholar Bakry Eljak Elmedni writes about the failures of mediation efforts in the deadly conflict in Sudan that has killed thousands and displaced 13 million people. With US talks temporarily postponed because of a dispute between the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, Elmedni questions what role the US might play in ending the conflict.
“Given the transactional approach to US foreign policy we have seen during the Trump administration, whether it be in Ukraine or Africa, there are indicators the administration will likely pursue a quick-fix solution in Sudan. This could take the form of prioritizing humanitarian access and civilian protection under the current de facto territorial partition of the country. Such a step is bound to lead to a power and wealth-sharing solution between the warring parties. However, agreements of this nature, of which Sudan has had many since independence, have not brought lasting peace. A new approach is needed,” Elmedni writes.
Documentary producer and scholar Said Salmi explores how the rise in technology and web based communications tools, increasing political awareness among citizens and changing geopolitical landscape have paved the way for a revival of the Arab Maghreb Union.
“The Arab Maghreb Union has long been seen as a failed institution — a relic of pan-Arab dreams. But today, thanks to digital tools, a renewed sense of political agency, shifting public perceptions, and an evolving global order, the dream of Maghreb unity is no longer unrealistic. It is an open path, paved not by statecraft but by civil courage,” Salmi writes, drawing attention to ICDI’s own project on the Maghreb to encourage dialogue between leading civil society members throughout the region.
“This time, it’s not about empty declarations from high-level summits. It’s about concrete, decentralized action. It’s about people speaking across borders. And ultimately, it’s about reclaiming the future — one conversation, one initiative, one digital link at a time.”
In an interview with French investigative online newspaper Mediapart ICDI Chair Jamal Benomar discusses the escalating tensions between Algeria and Morocco, the seemingly intractable Western Sahara issue, and ICDI’s Maghreb Union Initiative.
“The good news is that, despite tensions between states – sometimes fueled by disinformation campaigns, including via bots on social media – the peoples, in their vast majority, refuse to be drawn into this logic of confrontation. This is precisely why it is urgent to mobilize Maghreb civil society and citizenry to collectively say: ‘Enough is enough.’ The verbal escalation, military escalation, and artificial division between peoples bound by so much shared history must be put to an end,” Benomar said.
“We aspire to foster the emergence of a public opinion committed to dialogue, as well as of a civil society capable of pushing governments to re-establish direct contact within a strictly Maghreb framework — far from the logic imposed by international institutions or by external actors whose interventions most often respond to interests that are not ours,” he said.
Gulf scholar Anna Jacobs looks at the rising prominence of Gulf states in global mediation efforts, focusing in particular on Gaza and the role they played in negotiating limited truces and providing humanitarian aid. But could they be doing more?
“Have Gulf states used the full extent of their leverage with Israel and the US? No, because dealing with Israel is closely linked to critical bilateral relations with the United States. The benefits that come with close ties to Washington, especially in terms of defense and security, are too important for Gulf states, and other Arab states like Egypt and Jordan, to risk,” Jacobs writes.
“Gulf diplomacy, aid, and mediation are essential to conflict mitigation efforts around Gaza and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict more broadly, but without more support from the international community, and specifically more pressure on the Israeli government from allies like the United States, Gulf diplomacy is not sufficient to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza or a two-state solution,” she writes.
Nelson Mandela
