Throughout June members of the diplomatic community and global citizens were on the edges of their seats during what is now referred to as the ‘12-day War.’ (Meanwhile those in Iran and Israel were heading out of major cities and taking shelter). Red lines were crossed and the Middle East appeared set to explode after Israel launched what it called “preemptive strikes” on Iran and the United States finally came into direct confrontation with a nation that has been its regional arch enemy for decades. Two nations with nuclear arms – Israel and the US – launched an attack against a nation without them, while the United Nations Security Council and the UN nuclear watchdog the International Atomic Energy Agency remained largely silent. Both the Secretary General and the Director General of the IAEA failed to clearly condemn the attacks as acts of aggression. 

With US bombs raining down on nuclear sites in Iran, in the midst of negotiations, it appeared as though global diplomacy itself was being blown up. The International Center for Dialogue Initiatives (ICDI) recognized the significance of this event for global diplomacy and published the 25th edition of its newsletter Diplomacy Now titled A Month Blood, Bluff and Blast.

In our follow up ICDI Dialogues podcast titled ‘Iran and The 12-day war,’ I spoke with esteemed scholars Dr. Trita Parsi and Dr. Farah Jan about the significance of these attacks, their implications for US-Iran relations, regional security and the global nuclear non-proliferation order. 

“It’s unfair to say that diplomacy failed,” Parsi told me. “[T]he Trump administration shifted the goalposts, and then once that didn’t work, because the Iranians were not likely at all, under any circumstance to capitulate, he caved in further to the Israeli demands and essentially greenlighted their military action and then joined in.” 

“Had he [Trump] stuck to his original red line, which was that there could be enrichment in Iran, but it would have to be limited (…) I actually think that they would have had a nuclear deal by the end of June of this year,” Dr. Parsi said. 

“If there is a deal, it has to be based on a compromise, not based on one side dictating an ultimatum and expecting the other side to capitulate – that is a pathway towards war and that is exactly what Trump achieved by shifting his position to the Israeli red line,” Dr. Parsi added. 

Dr. Farah Jan, who wrote ‘How the 12-day War Could Create a New Nuclear Disorder’ for our newsletter Diplomacy Now, said the conflict could have dire consequences for nuclear governance both in the region and the world at large. 

“Other countries may conclude that the only thing that actually deters an attack is a nuclear weapon and I think that encourages other states in the region to pursue a nuclear program,” Dr Jan said. “What we have now is this verification gap with no IAEA inspections or inspectors able to inspect Iran’s program during this critical post-conflict period. 

As with every edition of Diplomacy Now,  the views expressed by the guests appearing on ICDI Dialogues are not necessarily our own. However, ICDI remains committed to the ethos and philosophy that open debate, dialogue, diplomacy, and mediation, rather than armed conflict and war, offer the way forward to resolving any conflict.

We hope you enjoy listening and we welcome your feedback at diplomacynow@dialogueinitiatives.org.